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El Paso Locomotive vs Loudoun United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:00

El Paso Locomotive

PPG 1.70 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWWW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME O1.5

Loudoun United

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDDL

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

Model probability 56.3% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-15.2%0-22.4%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.0%1-110.1%1-24.7%1-31.4%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.7%2-19.9%2-24.6%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-07.0%3-16.5%3-23.0%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-15.0%4+-22.3%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.0% 59.5% 1.68 -5.9%

Draw 22.8% 26.3% 3.80 -8.0%

Away win 21.2% 23.8% 4.20 -6.6%

Over 2.5 53.5% 61.7% 1.62 -13.3%

Over 3.5 31.5% 40.0% 2.50 -21.3%

BTTS 51.7% 63.7% 1.57 -18.8%

Home O1.5 56.3% 62.5% 1.60 -9.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 35.7% 2.80 -16.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob51.7%

H 56% / xG 2.0-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.1%

#2 2–0 10.7%

#3 2–1 9.9%

#4 1–0 11.0%

#5 0–0 5.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

El Paso Locomotive2.0

Loudoun United0.9

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 31.5%

Form & verdict PPG

EL PASO LOCOMOTIVE · PPG 1.70

LOUDOUN UNITED · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.04 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

El Paso Locomotive (H) 56.0%

ODDS 1.68 · IMPLIED 59.5% EV -5.9%

Draw 22.8%

ODDS 3.80 · IMPLIED 26.3% EV -8.0%

Loudoun United (A) 21.2%

ODDS 4.20 · IMPLIED 23.8% EV -6.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

El Paso Locomotive face Loudoun United in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives El Paso Locomotive a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Loudoun United 21%, so El Paso Locomotive are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for El Paso Locomotive and 0.9 for Loudoun United (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, El Paso Locomotive are averaging 1.70 points per game versus 1.12 for Loudoun United. This match finished 4-1.

El Paso Locomotive vs Loudoun United Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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