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Brooklyn vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Brooklyn

PPG 0.78 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

4 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Sporting JAX

PPG 0.45 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLWL

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 61.2% vs bookmaker-implied 65.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.5%0-15.4%0-23.2%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-08.6%1-110.2%1-26.1%1-32.4%1-4+0.9%2 2-08.2%2-19.8%2-25.8%2-32.3%2-4+0.9%3 3-05.2%3-16.2%3-23.7%3-31.5%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-14.6%4+-22.7%4+-31.1%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 58.8% 1.70 -15.0%

Draw 22.5% 26.7% 3.75 -9.4%

Away win 27.5% 25.6% 3.90 +4.3%

Over 2.5 61.2% 65.4% 1.53 -6.4%

Over 3.5 38.2% 44.4% 2.25 -14.1%

BTTS 60.7% 65.4% 1.53 -7.1%

Home O1.5 56.3% 63.7% 1.57 -11.6%

Away O1.5 35.1% 36.4% 2.75 -3.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 54%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob60.7%

H 50% / xG 1.9-1.2 / O2.5 61% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.2%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 8.2%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 1–0 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Brooklyn1.9

Sporting JAX1.2

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.2% · O3.5 PROB 38.2%

Form & verdict PPG

BROOKLYN · PPG 0.78

SPORTING JAX · PPG 0.45

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.71 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Brooklyn (H) 50.0%

ODDS 1.70 · IMPLIED 58.8% EV -15.0%

Draw 22.5%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -9.4%

Sporting JAX (A) 27.5%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV +4.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Brooklyn face Sporting JAX in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Brooklyn a 50% chance, the draw 23% and Sporting JAX 28%, so Brooklyn are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Brooklyn and 1.2 for Sporting JAX (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Brooklyn are averaging 0.78 points per game versus 0.45 for Sporting JAX. The best value bet our model finds is A/BTTS, with an expected value of +13.1%. This match finished 4-1.

Brooklyn vs Sporting JAX Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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