Today / USA - USL Championship / Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven

Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 02:30

Phoenix Rising

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

DLWDW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Indy Eleven

PPG 0.56 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 63.7%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.2%0-23.5%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.2%1-111.7%1-25.6%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.9%2-19.6%2-24.6%2-31.5%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.4%3-15.2%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.1%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.0% 47.6% 2.10 +5.0%

Draw 24.5% 28.6% 3.50 -8.6%

Away win 25.5% 34.5% 2.90 -15.6%

Over 2.5 52.2% 58.8% 1.70 -11.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

BTTS 52.7% 63.7% 1.57 -17.3%

Home O1.5 48.9% 51.8% 1.93 -5.6%

Away O1.5 26.0% 42.6% 2.35 -23.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 30%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob52.7%

H 50% / xG 1.6-1.0 / O2.5 52% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.7%

#2 1–0 12.2%

#3 2–0 9.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Phoenix Rising1.6

Indy Eleven1.0

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

PHOENIX RISING · PPG 1.60

INDY ELEVEN · PPG 0.56

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.67 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Phoenix Rising (H) 50.0%

ODDS 2.10 · IMPLIED 47.6% EV +5.0%

Draw 24.5%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -8.6%

Indy Eleven (A) 25.5%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -15.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Phoenix Rising face Indy Eleven in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Phoenix Rising a 50% chance, the draw 25% and Indy Eleven 26%, so Phoenix Rising are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Phoenix Rising and 1.0 for Indy Eleven (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Phoenix Rising are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 0.56 for Indy Eleven. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +2.9%. This match finished 2-1.

Phoenix Rising vs Indy Eleven Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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