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Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:00

Oakland Roots

PPG 1.18 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Orange County SC

PPG 1.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLLD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-18.2%0-25.4%0-32.4%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.0%1-111.9%1-27.9%1-33.5%1-4+1.6%2 2-06.6%2-18.7%2-25.8%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-03.2%3-14.2%3-22.8%3-31.2%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-12.1%4+-21.4%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 54.1% 1.85 -15.8%

Draw 24.7% 29.4% 3.40 -9.6%

Away win 29.8% 27.8% 3.60 +4.4%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 32.8% 38.2% 2.62 -14.1%

BTTS 55.0% 59.9% 1.67 -8.2%

Home O1.5 40.1% 55.6% 1.80 -27.8%

Away O1.5 40.9% 33.3% 3.00 +22.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob55.0%

H 46% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 11.9%

#2 2–1 8.7%

#3 1–0 9.0%

#4 2–0 6.6%

#5 1–2 7.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Oakland Roots1.5

Orange County SC1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.8%

Form & verdict PPG

OAKLAND ROOTS · PPG 1.18

ORANGE COUNTY SC · PPG 1.82

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value | No clear value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Oakland Roots (H) 45.5%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -15.8%

Draw 24.7%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -9.6%

Orange County SC (A) 29.8%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +4.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Oakland Roots face Orange County SC in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Oakland Roots a 46% chance, the draw 25% and Orange County SC 30%, so Oakland Roots are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Oakland Roots and 1.3 for Orange County SC (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Oakland Roots are averaging 1.18 points per game versus 1.82 for Orange County SC. The best value bet our model finds is AwayO15, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Oakland Roots vs Orange County SC Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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