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Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 23:00

Hartford Athletic

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWWW

3 – 2

FULL TIME

Birmingham Legion

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.0%0-110.6%0-24.7%0-31.4%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.8%1-113.1%1-25.8%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.2%2-18.1%2-23.6%2-31.1%2-4+0.3%3 3-03.8%3-13.4%3-21.5%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.4%4+-20.6%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.2% 51.3% 1.95 -13.8%

Draw 26.9% 29.4% 3.40 -5.1%

Away win 28.9% 30.3% 3.30 -2.8%

Over 2.5 44.8% 58.8% 1.70 -23.8%

Over 3.5 27.6% 38.2% 2.62 -16.6%

BTTS 50.3% 64.5% 1.55 -22.0%

Home O1.5 34.6% 55.6% 1.80 -37.7%

Away O1.5 25.7% 36.4% 2.75 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-2

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob50.3%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.9 / U2.5 45% / BTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.8%

#2 1–1 13.1%

#3 0–0 12.0%

#4 0–1 10.6%

#5 2–0 9.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hartford Athletic1.2

Birmingham Legion0.9

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.6%

Form & verdict PPG

HARTFORD ATHLETIC · PPG 1.38

BIRMINGHAM LEGION · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.36, combined xG 2.12 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hartford Athletic (H) 44.2%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -13.8%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -5.1%

Birmingham Legion (A) 28.9%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -2.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hartford Athletic face Birmingham Legion in USA - USL Championship on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hartford Athletic a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Birmingham Legion 29%, so Hartford Athletic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Hartford Athletic and 0.9 for Birmingham Legion (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hartford Athletic are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 0.75 for Birmingham Legion. This match finished 3-2.

Hartford Athletic vs Birmingham Legion Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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