Today / USA - USL Championship / New Mexico United vs Lexington

New Mexico United vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Thursday, August 27, 2026, 01:30

New Mexico United

PPG 2.22 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Lexington

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWLL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.4%0-17.8%0-23.6%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-013.1%1-112.1%1-25.6%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.4%2-24.3%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.2%3-14.8%3-22.2%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-02.9%4+-12.6%4+-21.2%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.2% 40.0% 2.50 +25.5%

Draw 26.3% 29.4% 3.40 -6.3%

Away win 23.5% 40.0% 2.50 -24.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 52.7% 62.5% 1.60 -15.7%

Home O1.5 45.0% 45.5% 2.20 -1.0%

Away O1.5 25.7% 45.5% 2.20 -26.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.7%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 13.1%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1✓ 9.4%

#5 0–0 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New Mexico United1.6

Lexington0.9

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 2.22

LEXINGTON · PPG 1.00

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.63 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New Mexico United (H) 50.2%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +25.5%

Draw 26.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -6.3%

Lexington (A) 23.5%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV -24.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

New Mexico United face Lexington in USA - USL Championship on Thursday, August 27, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New Mexico United a 50% chance, the draw 26% and Lexington 24%, so New Mexico United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for New Mexico United and 0.9 for Lexington (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New Mexico United are averaging 2.22 points per game versus 1.00 for Lexington. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +4.8%. This match finished 2-1.

New Mexico United vs Lexington Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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