Today / USA - USL Championship / Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic

Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 02:00

Monterey Bay

PPG 1.30 · HOME

LAST 5

LLDLD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Sacramento Republic

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDWDD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.0%0-113.0%0-28.4%0-33.6%0-4+1.6%1 1-010.1%1-113.0%1-28.4%1-33.6%1-4+1.6%2 2-05.1%2-16.6%2-24.2%2-31.8%2-4+0.8%3 3-01.7%3-12.2%3-21.4%3-30.6%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.8% 29.0% 3.45 +1.7%

Draw 26.5% 30.3% 3.30 -7.5%

Away win 43.7% 51.3% 1.95 -14.8%

Over 2.5 50.5% 50.0% 2.00 +1.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 29.0% 3.45 -0.6%

BTTS 52.7% 57.1% 1.75 -7.8%

Home O1.5 30.9% 33.3% 3.00 -7.3%

Away O1.5 37.2% 48.8% 2.05 -23.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 23%CONFIDENCE

✓ HIT — EXACT SCORE

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.0-1.3 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1✓ 13.0%

#2 0–1 13.0%

#3 0–0 10.0%

#4 1–0 10.1%

#5 1–2 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Monterey Bay1.0

Sacramento Republic1.3

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MONTEREY BAY · PPG 1.30

SACRAMENTO REPUBLIC · PPG 1.10

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.29, combined xG 2.30 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Monterey Bay (H) 29.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV +1.7%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -7.5%

Sacramento Republic (A) 43.7%

ODDS 1.95 · IMPLIED 51.3% EV -14.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Monterey Bay face Sacramento Republic in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Monterey Bay a 30% chance, the draw 27% and Sacramento Republic 44%, so Sacramento Republic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Monterey Bay and 1.3 for Sacramento Republic (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Monterey Bay are averaging 1.30 points per game versus 1.10 for Sacramento Republic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +8.9%. This match finished 1-1.

Monterey Bay vs Sacramento Republic Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

More USA - USL Championship Predictions