Today / USA - USL Championship / New Mexico United vs San Antonio

New Mexico United vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 01:30

New Mexico United

PPG 2.30 · HOME

LAST 5

WWDWL

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

San Antonio

PPG 1.40 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLW

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 48.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+9.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-17.4%0-23.0%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-014.4%1-111.7%1-24.8%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.3%2-23.8%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-06.1%3-14.9%3-22.0%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.4%4+-12.8%4+-21.1%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 48.8% 2.05 +9.7%

Draw 24.6% 29.9% 3.35 -10.5%

Away win 21.9% 32.3% 3.10 -19.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.7% 33.9% 2.95 -9.2%

BTTS 47.2% 62.5% 1.60 -24.5%

Home O1.5 47.8% 51.3% 1.95 -6.8%

Away O1.5 23.5% 39.2% 2.55 -24.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.8 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 14.4%

#2 1–1 11.7%

#3 2–0 11.4%

#4 0–0 9.0%

#5 2–1 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

New Mexico United1.6

San Antonio0.8

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

NEW MEXICO UNITED · PPG 2.30

SAN ANTONIO · PPG 1.40

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.78 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

New Mexico United (H) 53.5%

ODDS 2.05 · IMPLIED 48.8% EV +9.7%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.35 · IMPLIED 29.9% EV -10.5%

San Antonio (A) 21.9%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -19.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

New Mexico United face San Antonio in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives New Mexico United a 54% chance, the draw 25% and San Antonio 22%, so New Mexico United are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for New Mexico United and 0.8 for San Antonio (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, New Mexico United are averaging 2.30 points per game versus 1.40 for San Antonio. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +3.9%. This match finished 1-2.

New Mexico United vs San Antonio Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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