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FC Tulsa vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Group Stage ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 00:30

FC Tulsa

PPG 1.64 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Rhode Island

PPG 1.00 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWLWL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.4% vs bookmaker-implied 54.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.4%0-19.5%0-24.3%0-31.3%0-4+0.4%1 1-014.1%1-112.8%1-25.8%1-31.8%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.5%2-18.7%2-23.9%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-04.3%3-13.9%3-21.8%3-30.5%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-11.8%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.0% 38.5% 2.60 +19.6%

Draw 27.0% 32.3% 3.10 -9.8%

Away win 27.0% 38.5% 2.60 -17.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 46.5% 2.15 +8.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 25.3% 3.95 +8.0%

BTTS 52.4% 54.6% 1.83 -4.1%

Home O1.5 38.0% 38.2% 2.62 -0.4%

Away O1.5 25.7% 38.2% 2.62 -19.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 152 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 49%

O2.5 46%

BTTS 53%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -17.0%

Bet Hit 48%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.4 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.4%

H 46% / xG 1.4-0.9 / U2.5 50% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.8%

#2 1–0✓ 14.1%

#3 0–0 10.4%

#4 2–0 9.5%

#5 2–1 8.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

FC Tulsa1.4

Rhode Island0.9

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FC TULSA · PPG 1.64

RHODE ISLAND · PPG 1.00

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.45, combined xG 2.26 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

FC Tulsa (H) 46.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV +19.6%

Draw 27.0%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -9.8%

Rhode Island (A) 27.0%

ODDS 2.60 · IMPLIED 38.5% EV -17.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

FC Tulsa face Rhode Island in USA - USL Championship on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives FC Tulsa a 46% chance, the draw 27% and Rhode Island 27%, so FC Tulsa are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.4 for FC Tulsa and 0.9 for Rhode Island (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, FC Tulsa are averaging 1.64 points per game versus 1.00 for Rhode Island. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +20.1%. This match finished 1-0.

FC Tulsa vs Rhode Island Prediction— USA - USL Championship

Match Preview & Prediction

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