Leagues / URUGUAY / Primera División - Apertura
Primera División - Apertura
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming Primera División - Apertura predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
4 SEPT22:00 Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo Home 53% 1.65 -13%// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 72 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
44.4%
1X2
32/72
48.6%
O/U 2.5
35/72
48.6%
BTTS
35/72
51.4%
Exact score
37/72
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
22
Settled
31.8%
Hit rate
7/22
1.97
Avg odds
-36.0%
ROI
-7.9u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=11 36.4% HIT · AVG 1.93 · -28.6% ROI
HOME WIN · N=9 33.3% HIT · AVG 1.99 · -30.9% ROI
OVER 2.5 · N=2 0.0% HIT · AVG 2.05 · -100.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
5
Bets
40%
Hit
-18.4%
ROI
✓ Solid
3
Bets
33%
Hit
-35.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
12
Bets
25%
Hit
-49.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-2.5%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 8 PICKS · 3 HIT · 5 MISS
31 AUG Racing Montevideo vs Albion FC — NO PICK 1–0 —30 AUG Penarol vs Club Nacional HO1.5 0–1 MISS30 AUG Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo — NO PICK 1–1 —29 AUG Progreso vs Danubio — NO PICK 1–0 —29 AUG Boston River vs Cerro Home +1% 1–1 MISS29 AUG Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado BTTS -5% 2–0 MISS29 AUG Defensor Sporting vs Atletico Torque — NO PICK 1–3 —28 AUG Wanderers vs Central Espanol — NO PICK 3–0 —23 AUG Danubio vs Racing Montevideo — NO PICK 0–0 —23 AUG Atletico Torque vs Wanderers BTTS -4% 5–1 HIT23 AUG Club Nacional vs Progreso Home 1–0 HIT22 AUG Central Espanol vs Juventud BTTS -3% 0–1 MISS22 AUG Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting — NO PICK 1–1 —22 AUG Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol BTTS +6% 0–0 MISS21 AUG Albion FC vs Boston River BTTS +3% 2–3 HIT