Leagues / URUGUAY / Primera División - Apertura
Primera División - Apertura
▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE
MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE
// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 28 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
50.0%
1X2
14/28
53.6%
O/U 2.5
15/28
53.6%
BTTS
15/28
46.4%
Exact score
13/28
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
16
Settled
56.2%
Hit rate
9/16
1.92
Avg odds
+7.4%
ROI
+1.2u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=10 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.92 · +14.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=6 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.93 · -3.7% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
6
Bets
50%
Hit
-1.2%
ROI
✓ Solid
4
Bets
50%
Hit
-6.3%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
6
Bets
67%
Hit
+25.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
May 2026 // 9 PICKS · 5 HIT · 4 MISS
11 MAY D. Maldonado vs Boston River Home -4% 2–1 HIT11 MAY Cerro Largo vs Penarol — NO PICK 2–3 —10 MAY Defensor S. vs Juventud — NO PICK 1–2 —10 MAY Nacional vs Cerro Home 4–0 HIT9 MAY Danubio vs Albion BTTS 0–1 MISS9 MAY Central Espanol vs Racing CM BTTS 2–0 MISS8 MAY Wanderers vs Liverpool M. BTTS -6% 1–0 MISS4 MAY Penarol vs Defensor S. — NO PICK 1–1 —3 MAY Progreso vs Cerro Largo — NO PICK 0–1 —3 MAY Boston River vs Central Espanol BTTS -2% 2–1 HIT3 MAY Albion vs Nacional BTTS 3–2 HIT2 MAY Juventud vs Wanderers BTTS +0% 2–1 HIT2 MAY Cerro vs D. Maldonado — NO PICK 0–1 —2 MAY Liverpool M. vs Danubio BTTS +11% 3–0 MISSApril 2026 // 1 PICK · 1 HIT · 0 MISS
27 APR Defensor S. vs Progreso Home -4% 1–0 HIT