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Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 5 ·Friday, September 4, 2026, 22:00

Atletico Torque

PPG 1.58 · HOME

UPCOMING

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.5%0-16.9%0-23.2%0-31.0%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.6%1-111.5%1-25.3%1-31.6%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.5%2-19.6%2-24.4%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.8%3-15.4%3-22.5%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.5%4+-13.2%4+-21.5%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.0% 60.6% 1.65 -12.6%

Draw 24.3% 28.2% 3.55 -8.2%

Away win 22.7% 20.0% 5.00 +8.1%

Over 2.5 53.8% 51.3% 1.95 +4.9%

Over 3.5 31.6% 29.0% 3.45 +9.0%

BTTS 52.9% 54.1% 1.85 -2.1%

Home O1.5 49.4% 54.6% 1.83 -9.6%

Away O1.5 26.1% 25.0% 4.00 +2.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 34%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob52.9%

H 53% / xG 1.7-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 1–0 12.6%

#3 2–0 10.5%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Torque1.7

Cerro Largo0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 31.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO TORQUE · PPG 1.58

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.15

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.75 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Torque (H) 53.0%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -12.6%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.55 · IMPLIED 28.2% EV -8.2%

Cerro Largo (A) 22.7%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +8.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Torque face Cerro Largo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, September 4, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Torque a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Cerro Largo 23%, so Atletico Torque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Atletico Torque and 0.9 for Cerro Largo (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Torque are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 1.15 for Cerro Largo. The best value bet our model finds is BTTS/O25, with an expected value of +10.3%.

Atletico Torque vs Cerro Largo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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