Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Club Nacional vs Progreso

Club Nacional vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Sunday, August 23, 2026, 21:30

Club Nacional

PPG 1.58 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLWW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Progreso

PPG 0.67 · AWAY

LAST 5

LLLLW

// Model verdict

Home

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.1%0-15.5%0-22.1%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.3%1-110.2%1-24.0%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.5%2-19.6%2-23.7%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-07.8%3-16.0%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-05.6%4+-14.3%4+-21.7%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 55.6% — — —

Draw 22.7% — — —

Away win 21.7% — — —

Over 2.5 53.4% — — —

Over 3.5 30.9% — — —

BTTS 51.8% — — —

Home O1.5 54.9% — — —

Away O1.5 18.3% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.5%

#2 1–1 10.2%

#3 1–0✓ 13.3%

#4 2–1 9.6%

#5 0–0 7.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Club Nacional1.9

Progreso0.8

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.4% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

CLUB NACIONAL · PPG 1.58

PROGRESO · PPG 0.67

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.10 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Club Nacional (H) 55.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 22.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Progreso (A) 21.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Club Nacional face Progreso in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Club Nacional a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Progreso 22%, so Club Nacional are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Club Nacional and 0.8 for Progreso (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Club Nacional are averaging 1.58 points per game versus 0.67 for Progreso. This match finished 1-0.

Club Nacional vs Progreso Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions