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Racing Montevideo vs Albion FC Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Monday, August 31, 2026, 18:30

Racing Montevideo

PPG 2.00 · HOME

LAST 5

WDWDW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Albion FC

PPG 1.58 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-014.3%0-110.6%0-23.9%0-31.0%0-4+0.2%1 1-017.2%1-112.7%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.4%2-17.7%2-22.8%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.2%3-13.1%3-21.1%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.2%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% 53.2% 1.88 -10.3%

Draw 28.7% 30.3% 3.30 -3.2%

Away win 23.6% 25.3% 3.95 -4.1%

Over 2.5 42.7% 46.5% 2.15 -8.2%

Over 3.5 20.9% 25.3% 3.95 -10.5%

BTTS 48.0% 51.8% 1.93 -7.4%

Home O1.5 33.0% 47.6% 2.10 -30.7%

Away O1.5 18.8% 26.7% 3.75 -17.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.0%

H 48% / xG 1.2-0.7 / U2.5 43% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0✓ 17.2%

#2 0–0 14.3%

#3 1–1 12.7%

#4 2–0 10.4%

#5 0–1 10.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Racing Montevideo1.2

Albion FC0.7

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 42.7% · O3.5 PROB 20.9%

Form & verdict PPG

RACING MONTEVIDEO · PPG 2.00

ALBION FC · PPG 1.58

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.47, combined xG 1.95 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Racing Montevideo (H) 47.7%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -10.3%

Draw 28.7%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -3.2%

Albion FC (A) 23.6%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV -4.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Racing Montevideo face Albion FC in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Monday, August 31, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Racing Montevideo a 48% chance, the draw 29% and Albion FC 24%, so Racing Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Racing Montevideo and 0.7 for Albion FC (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 43% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Racing Montevideo are averaging 2.00 points per game versus 1.58 for Albion FC. This match finished 1-0.

Racing Montevideo vs Albion FC Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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