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Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 21:30

Deportivo Maldonado

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Penarol

PPG 2.20 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.8% — a real, if thin, edge.

+5.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-08.1%0-19.6%0-25.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.9%1 1-010.7%1-112.7%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.2%2 2-07.1%2-18.4%2-25.0%2-32.0%2-4+0.8%3 3-03.1%3-13.7%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.4%4+-11.6%4+-21.0%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 37.8% 25.3% 3.95 +49.3%

Draw 26.2% 30.3% 3.30 -8.1%

Away win 36.0% 53.2% 1.88 -32.3%

Over 2.5 52.9% 46.5% 2.15 +13.7%

Over 3.5 30.9% 25.3% 3.95 +22.1%

BTTS 54.7% 51.8% 1.93 +5.6%

Home O1.5 37.8% 26.7% 3.75 +41.8%

Away O1.5 36.5% 47.6% 2.10 -23.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 38% / xG 1.3-1.2 / O2.5 53% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–1 9.6%

#3 1–0 10.7%

#4 1–2 7.6%

#5 0–0✓ 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Deportivo Maldonado1.3

Penarol1.2

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 52.9% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO · PPG 2.25

PENAROL · PPG 2.20

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.13 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Deportivo Maldonado (H) 37.8%

ODDS 3.95 · IMPLIED 25.3% EV +49.3%

Draw 26.2%

ODDS 3.30 · IMPLIED 30.3% EV -8.1%

Penarol (A) 36.0%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV -32.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Deportivo Maldonado face Penarol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Deportivo Maldonado a 38% chance, the draw 26% and Penarol 36%, so Deportivo Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Deportivo Maldonado and 1.2 for Penarol (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 53% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Deportivo Maldonado are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 2.20 for Penarol. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.5%. This match finished 0-0.

Deportivo Maldonado vs Penarol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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