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Progreso vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Progreso

PPG 0.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LLLLW

1 – 0

FULL TIME

Danubio

PPG 0.85 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.0%0-113.2%0-26.7%0-32.3%0-4+0.7%1 1-013.3%1-113.5%1-26.9%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-06.8%2-16.9%2-23.5%2-31.2%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.3%3-12.4%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.8%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 32.0% 34.2% 2.92 -6.6%

Draw 32.4% 32.3% 3.10 +0.4%

Away win 35.6% 42.4% 2.36 -16.0%

Over 2.5 37.8% 42.6% 2.35 -11.2%

Over 3.5 20.6% 22.2% 4.50 -4.4%

BTTS 47.2% 51.3% 1.95 -8.0%

Home O1.5 30.9% 32.3% 3.10 -4.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 37.7% 2.65 -13.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob47.2%

D 32% / xG 1.0-1.0 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.5%

#2 0–0 13.0%

#3 0–1 13.2%

#4 1–0✓ 13.3%

#5 1–2 6.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Progreso1.0

Danubio1.0

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 37.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.6%

Form & verdict PPG

PROGRESO · PPG 0.67

DANUBIO · PPG 0.85

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.01, combined xG 2.04 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Progreso (H) 32.0%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV -6.6%

Draw 32.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV +0.4%

Danubio (A) 35.6%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -16.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Progreso face Danubio in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Progreso a 32% chance, the draw 32% and Danubio 36%, so Danubio are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Progreso and 1.0 for Danubio (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Progreso are averaging 0.67 points per game versus 0.85 for Danubio. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +0.1%. This match finished 1-0.

Progreso vs Danubio Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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