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Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 22:00

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.33 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Liverpool Montevideo

PPG 1.69 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-012.6%0-113.3%0-27.1%0-32.5%0-4+0.8%1 1-012.8%1-113.5%1-27.2%1-32.5%1-4+0.8%2 2-06.5%2-16.8%2-23.6%2-31.3%2-4+0.4%3 3-02.2%3-12.3%3-21.2%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.7%4+-10.7%4+-20.4%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 31.3% 27.0% 3.70 +15.8%

Draw 27.3% 31.7% 3.15 -8.4%

Away win 41.4% 50.5% 1.98 -18.0%

Over 2.5 44.7% 46.5% 2.15 -3.9%

Over 3.5 25.1% 25.3% 3.95 -0.5%

BTTS 47.2% 54.1% 1.85 -12.7%

Home O1.5 30.9% 28.6% 3.50 +8.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 45.5% 2.20 -28.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.0 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.2%

A 41% / xG 1.0-1.1 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 13.3%

#2 1–1✓ 13.5%

#3 0–0 12.6%

#4 1–0 12.8%

#5 1–2 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Largo1.0

Liverpool Montevideo1.1

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.1%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.33

LIVERPOOL MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.69

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.05, combined xG 2.07 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Largo (H) 31.3%

ODDS 3.70 · IMPLIED 27.0% EV +15.8%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -8.4%

Liverpool Montevideo (A) 41.4%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -18.0%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Largo face Liverpool Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Largo a 31% chance, the draw 27% and Liverpool Montevideo 41%, so Liverpool Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.0 for Cerro Largo and 1.1 for Liverpool Montevideo (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Largo are averaging 1.33 points per game versus 1.69 for Liverpool Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is H/BTTS, with an expected value of +9.3%. This match finished 1-1.

Cerro Largo vs Liverpool Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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