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Central Espanol vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 14:00

Central Espanol

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWLLL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Juventud

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDLWW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 49.7% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.7%0-17.2%0-23.4%0-31.1%0-4+0.3%1 1-012.5%1-111.8%1-25.5%1-31.7%1-4+0.5%2 2-010.1%2-19.5%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-05.5%3-15.2%3-22.4%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-03.2%4+-13.0%4+-21.4%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 49.8% 34.2% 2.92 +45.4%

Draw 26.5% 32.3% 3.10 -10.7%

Away win 23.7% 42.4% 2.36 -26.4%

Over 2.5 50.1% 42.6% 2.35 +17.7%

Over 3.5 28.2% 22.2% 4.50 +16.1%

BTTS 49.7% 51.3% 1.95 -3.1%

Home O1.5 47.4% 32.3% 3.10 +46.9%

Away O1.5 25.7% 37.7% 2.65 -19.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 25%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.7%

H 50% / xG 1.6-0.9 / O2.5 50% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 1–0 12.5%

#3 2–0 10.1%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 0–0 7.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Central Espanol1.6

Juventud0.9

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.1% · O3.5 PROB 28.2%

Form & verdict PPG

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.75

JUVENTUD · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.68 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Central Espanol (H) 49.8%

ODDS 2.92 · IMPLIED 34.2% EV +45.4%

Draw 26.5%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -10.7%

Juventud (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV -26.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Central Espanol face Juventud in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Central Espanol a 50% chance, the draw 27% and Juventud 24%, so Central Espanol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Central Espanol and 0.9 for Juventud (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Central Espanol are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 0.92 for Juventud. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +71.0%. This match finished 0-1.

Central Espanol vs Juventud Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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