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Atletico Torque vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Atletico Torque

PPG 1.45 · HOME

LAST 5

WLWWW

5 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Wanderers

PPG 1.46 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDLW

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 54.7% vs bookmaker-implied 57.1%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.1%0-16.2%0-23.8%0-31.5%0-4+0.6%1 1-09.0%1-110.9%1-26.7%1-32.7%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.9%2-19.6%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+0.9%3 3-04.6%3-15.6%3-23.4%3-31.4%3-4+0.6%4+ 4+-03.0%4+-13.6%4+-22.2%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 48.6% 50.0% 2.00 -2.8%

Draw 24.3% 31.3% 3.20 -13.3%

Away win 27.0% 28.6% 3.50 -3.3%

Over 2.5 53.9% 51.3% 1.95 +5.1%

Over 3.5 34.9% 29.4% 3.40 +18.7%

BTTS 54.7% 57.1% 1.75 -4.3%

Home O1.5 48.8% 50.0% 2.00 -2.4%

Away O1.5 37.3% 30.8% 3.25 +21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 5-1

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob54.7%

H 49% / xG 1.8-1.2 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 55%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.9%

#2 2–1 9.6%

#3 2–0 7.9%

#4 1–0 9.0%

#5 1–2 6.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Atletico Torque1.8

Wanderers1.2

COMBINED 3.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.9% · O3.5 PROB 34.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ATLETICO TORQUE · PPG 1.45

WANDERERS · PPG 1.46

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.53 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Atletico Torque (H) 48.6%

ODDS 2.00 · IMPLIED 50.0% EV -2.8%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -13.3%

Wanderers (A) 27.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Atletico Torque face Wanderers in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Atletico Torque a 49% chance, the draw 24% and Wanderers 27%, so Atletico Torque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Atletico Torque and 1.2 for Wanderers (3.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Atletico Torque are averaging 1.45 points per game versus 1.46 for Wanderers. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +22.7%. This match finished 5-1.

Atletico Torque vs Wanderers Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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