Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 18:00

Cerro Largo

PPG 1.36 · HOME

LAST 5

LDDDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Defensor Sporting

PPG 0.82 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.6%0-111.4%0-23.9%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-018.4%1-112.6%1-24.3%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-010.2%2-17.0%2-22.4%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-03.8%3-12.6%3-20.9%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-10.9%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.5% 36.0% 2.78 +23.7%

Draw 31.8% 33.3% 3.00 -4.6%

Away win 23.7% 39.7% 2.52 -24.2%

Over 2.5 38.0% 40.8% 2.45 -6.9%

Over 3.5 20.3% 21.1% 4.75 -2.1%

BTTS 47.6% 51.3% 1.95 -7.2%

Home O1.5 30.6% 32.3% 3.10 -5.1%

Away O1.5 17.9% 35.1% 2.85 -29.4%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 35%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.6%

H 44% / xG 1.1-0.7 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 18.4%

#2 0–0 16.6%

#3 1–1✓ 12.6%

#4 0–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 10.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Cerro Largo1.1

Defensor Sporting0.7

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.3%

Form & verdict PPG

CERRO LARGO · PPG 1.36

DEFENSOR SPORTING · PPG 0.82

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.43, combined xG 1.80 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Cerro Largo (H) 44.5%

ODDS 2.78 · IMPLIED 36.0% EV +23.7%

Draw 31.8%

ODDS 3.00 · IMPLIED 33.3% EV -4.6%

Defensor Sporting (A) 23.7%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV -24.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Cerro Largo face Defensor Sporting in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Cerro Largo a 45% chance, the draw 32% and Defensor Sporting 24%, so Cerro Largo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Cerro Largo and 0.7 for Defensor Sporting (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Cerro Largo are averaging 1.36 points per game versus 0.82 for Defensor Sporting. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +11.2%. This match finished 1-1.

Cerro Largo vs Defensor Sporting Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions