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Albion FC vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:30

Albion FC

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLLL

2 – 3

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Boston River

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWDWD

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 53.0% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+3.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.0%0-15.9%0-22.5%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-012.7%1-110.7%1-24.5%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.5%2-19.7%2-24.1%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.0%3-15.9%3-22.5%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.8%4+-14.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 52.3% 44.4% 2.25 +17.7%

Draw 24.3% 32.3% 3.10 -14.8%

Away win 23.4% 32.3% 3.10 -16.5%

Over 2.5 51.2% 42.6% 2.35 +20.3%

Over 3.5 30.9% 22.2% 4.50 +39.1%

BTTS 53.0% 51.3% 1.95 +3.4%

Home O1.5 49.0% 39.2% 2.55 +24.9%

Away O1.5 22.7% 30.3% 3.30 -15.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 32%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-3

xG (home)1.8 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob53.0%

H 52% / xG 1.8-0.8 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 2–0 11.5%

#3 1–0 12.7%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 0–0 7.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Albion FC1.8

Boston River0.8

COMBINED 2.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.2% · O3.5 PROB 30.9%

Form & verdict PPG

ALBION FC · PPG 1.25

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 0.92

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.97 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Albion FC (H) 52.3%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV +17.7%

Draw 24.3%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -14.8%

Boston River (A) 23.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -16.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Albion FC face Boston River in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Albion FC a 52% chance, the draw 24% and Boston River 23%, so Albion FC are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.8 for Albion FC and 0.8 for Boston River (2.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Albion FC are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.92 for Boston River. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +42.4%. This match finished 2-3.

Albion FC vs Boston River Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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