Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Boston River vs Cerro

Boston River vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Boston River

PPG 1.25 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDWD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Cerro

PPG 0.54 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWLD

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 53.5% vs bookmaker-implied 53.2% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.5%0-17.2%0-22.5%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-016.4%1-111.3%1-23.9%1-30.9%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.9%2-18.9%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.1%3 3-06.8%3-14.6%3-21.6%3-30.4%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-03.8%4+-12.6%4+-20.9%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.5% 53.2% 1.88 +0.6%

Draw 24.6% 31.7% 3.15 -13.5%

Away win 21.9% 24.4% 4.10 -6.1%

Over 2.5 50.5% 42.6% 2.35 +18.7%

Over 3.5 28.7% 22.2% 4.50 +17.5%

BTTS 47.2% 50.0% 2.00 -5.6%

Home O1.5 46.6% 45.5% 2.20 +2.5%

Away O1.5 18.2% 25.0% 4.00 -16.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob47.2%

H 54% / xG 1.6-0.7 / U2.5 50% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 16.4%

#2 2–0 12.9%

#3 1–1✓ 11.3%

#4 0–0 10.5%

#5 2–1 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Boston River1.6

Cerro0.7

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

BOSTON RIVER · PPG 1.25

CERRO · PPG 0.54

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Boston River (H) 53.5%

ODDS 1.88 · IMPLIED 53.2% EV +0.6%

Draw 24.6%

ODDS 3.15 · IMPLIED 31.7% EV -13.5%

Cerro (A) 21.9%

ODDS 4.10 · IMPLIED 24.4% EV -6.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Boston River face Cerro in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Boston River a 54% chance, the draw 25% and Cerro 22%, so Boston River are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Boston River and 0.7 for Cerro (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Boston River are averaging 1.25 points per game versus 0.54 for Cerro. The best value bet our model finds is over 2.5 goals, with an expected value of +18.7%. This match finished 1-1.

Boston River vs Cerro Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions