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Penarol vs Club Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:30

Penarol

PPG 1.93 · HOME

LAST 5

WWWDL

0 – 1

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME O1.5

Club Nacional

PPG 1.33 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLLWW

// Model verdict

Home Over 1.5

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.8%0-13.9%0-22.0%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-08.5%1-18.7%1-24.5%1-31.5%1-4+0.5%2 2-09.6%2-19.8%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-07.2%3-17.3%3-23.8%3-31.3%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-06.8%4+-17.0%4+-23.6%4+-31.2%4+-4+0.4%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.6% — — —

Draw 21.9% — — —

Away win 21.4% — — —

Over 2.5 61.4% — — —

Over 3.5 38.8% — — —

BTTS 55.0% — — —

Home O1.5 65.8% — — —

Away O1.5 32.6% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 8.7%

#2 2–1 9.8%

#3 2–0 9.6%

#4 3–1 7.3%

#5 1–2 4.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Penarol2.2

Club Nacional1.0

COMBINED 3.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 61.4% · O3.5 PROB 38.8%

Form & verdict PPG

PENAROL · PPG 1.93

CLUB NACIONAL · PPG 1.33

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.22 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Penarol (H) 56.6%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 21.9%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Club Nacional (A) 21.4%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Penarol face Club Nacional in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Penarol a 57% chance, the draw 22% and Club Nacional 21%, so Penarol are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.2 for Penarol and 1.0 for Club Nacional (3.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 61% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 55% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Penarol are averaging 1.93 points per game versus 1.33 for Club Nacional. This match finished 0-1.

Penarol vs Club Nacional Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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