Today / Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura / Danubio vs Racing Montevideo

Danubio vs Racing Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 3 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 14:00

Danubio

PPG 1.09 · HOME

LAST 5

DLDDL

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Racing Montevideo

PPG 1.73 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDWDW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-015.0%0-116.3%0-28.8%0-33.2%0-4+1.1%1 1-012.2%1-113.2%1-27.2%1-32.6%1-4+0.9%2 2-04.9%2-15.4%2-22.9%2-31.1%2-4+0.4%3 3-01.3%3-11.5%3-20.8%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-00.3%4+-10.3%4+-20.2%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 27.3% 29.4% 3.40 -4.3%

Draw 31.7% 34.7% 2.88 -8.7%

Away win 41.0% 44.4% 2.25 -7.8%

Over 2.5 38.0% 38.5% 2.60 -1.2%

Over 3.5 20.2% 18.2% 5.50 +6.7%

BTTS 47.6% 47.6% 2.10 -0.0%

Home O1.5 30.6% 26.7% 3.75 +14.8%

Away O1.5 35.2% 36.4% 2.75 -3.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.8 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob47.6%

A 41% / xG 0.8-1.1 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 15.0%

#2 0–1 16.3%

#3 1–1 13.2%

#4 1–0 12.2%

#5 0–2 8.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Danubio0.8

Racing Montevideo1.1

COMBINED 1.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.0% · O3.5 PROB 20.2%

Form & verdict PPG

DANUBIO · PPG 1.09

RACING MONTEVIDEO · PPG 1.73

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear value

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.27, combined xG 1.90 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Danubio (H) 27.3%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -4.3%

Draw 31.7%

ODDS 2.88 · IMPLIED 34.7% EV -8.7%

Racing Montevideo (A) 41.0%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -7.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Danubio face Racing Montevideo in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Danubio a 27% chance, the draw 32% and Racing Montevideo 41%, so Racing Montevideo are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.8 for Danubio and 1.1 for Racing Montevideo (1.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Danubio are averaging 1.09 points per game versus 1.73 for Racing Montevideo. The best value bet our model finds is HomeO15, with an expected value of +14.8%. This match finished 0-0.

Danubio vs Racing Montevideo Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

More Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura Predictions