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Wanderers vs Central Espanol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 28, 2026, 22:00

Wanderers

PPG 1.67 · HOME

LAST 5

LWDLW

3 – 0

FULL TIME

Central Espanol

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLLL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.0%0-19.5%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.1%1-112.9%1-26.8%1-32.4%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.2%2-18.7%2-24.6%2-31.6%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.7%3-13.9%3-22.1%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.8%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.5% 50.5% 1.98 -13.9%

Draw 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -7.2%

Away win 29.4% 27.8% 3.60 +3.5%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 38.0% 46.5% 2.15 -18.3%

Away O1.5 32.6% 30.3% 3.30 +7.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 20%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-0

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.1%

#3 0–0 9.0%

#4 2–1 8.7%

#5 2–0 8.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Wanderers1.3

Central Espanol1.1

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

WANDERERS · PPG 1.67

CENTRAL ESPANOL · PPG 1.25

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.29, combined xG 2.41 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Wanderers (H) 43.5%

ODDS 1.98 · IMPLIED 50.5% EV -13.9%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.2%

Central Espanol (A) 29.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +3.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Wanderers face Central Espanol in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Friday, August 28, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Wanderers a 44% chance, the draw 27% and Central Espanol 29%, so Wanderers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Wanderers and 1.1 for Central Espanol (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Wanderers are averaging 1.67 points per game versus 1.25 for Central Espanol. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +15.4%. This match finished 3-0.

Wanderers vs Central Espanol Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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