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Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 17:00

Juventud

PPG 1.08 · HOME

LAST 5

DDLWW

2 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Deportivo Maldonado

PPG 1.50 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWDL

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-111.2%0-28.6%0-34.3%0-4+2.3%1 1-08.0%1-112.2%1-29.3%1-34.7%1-4+2.5%2 2-04.3%2-16.6%2-25.0%2-32.5%2-4+1.4%3 3-01.6%3-12.4%3-21.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-00.5%4+-10.8%4+-20.6%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 29.3% 38.2% 2.62 -13.9%

Draw 26.7% 31.3% 3.20 -8.7%

Away win 44.0% 39.7% 2.52 +10.9%

Over 2.5 50.5% 47.6% 2.10 +6.0%

Over 3.5 28.7% 27.0% 3.70 +3.7%

BTTS 52.7% 55.6% 1.80 -5.1%

Home O1.5 30.9% 38.2% 2.62 -19.0%

Away O1.5 47.7% 39.2% 2.55 +21.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 24%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-0

xG (home)1.1 xG (away)1.5 BTTS prob52.7%

A 44% / xG 1.1-1.5 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.2%

#2 0–1 11.2%

#3 1–2 9.3%

#4 0–0 7.4%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Juventud1.1

Deportivo Maldonado1.5

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

JUVENTUD · PPG 1.08

DEPORTIVO MALDONADO · PPG 1.50

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.44 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Juventud (H) 29.3%

ODDS 2.62 · IMPLIED 38.2% EV -13.9%

Draw 26.7%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -8.7%

Deportivo Maldonado (A) 44.0%

ODDS 2.52 · IMPLIED 39.7% EV +10.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Juventud face Deportivo Maldonado in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Juventud a 29% chance, the draw 27% and Deportivo Maldonado 44%, so Deportivo Maldonado are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.1 for Juventud and 1.5 for Deportivo Maldonado (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Juventud are averaging 1.08 points per game versus 1.50 for Deportivo Maldonado. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +34.2%. This match finished 2-0.

Juventud vs Deportivo Maldonado Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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