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Defensor Sporting vs Atletico Torque Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Clausura · Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 20:00

Defensor Sporting

PPG 1.38 · HOME

LAST 5

WLLDL

1 – 3

FULL TIME

Atletico Torque

PPG 1.83 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLWWW

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.8%0-114.3%0-28.6%0-33.5%0-4+1.4%1 1-010.9%1-113.2%1-28.0%1-33.2%1-4+1.3%2 2-05.1%2-16.1%2-23.7%2-31.5%2-4+0.6%3 3-01.6%3-11.9%3-21.2%3-30.5%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-00.4%4+-10.5%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 28.1% 35.2% 2.84 -12.1%

Draw 27.3% 31.3% 3.20 -7.6%

Away win 44.6% 42.4% 2.36 +5.3%

Over 2.5 44.8% 47.6% 2.10 -5.9%

Over 3.5 26.4% 27.0% 3.70 -1.4%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 30.9% 36.4% 2.75 -15.0%

Away O1.5 36.6% 41.7% 2.40 -12.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 72 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 44%

O2.5 49%

BTTS 49%

Score Hit 51%

ROI -36.0%

Bet Hit 32%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

0 – 2 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-3

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob49.2%

A 45% / xG 0.9-1.2 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–1 14.3%

#2 1–1 13.2%

#3 0–0 11.8%

#4 1–0 10.9%

#5 0–2 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Defensor Sporting0.9

Atletico Torque1.2

COMBINED 2.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 26.4%

Form & verdict PPG

DEFENSOR SPORTING · PPG 1.38

ATLETICO TORQUE · PPG 1.83

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap -0.29, combined xG 2.14 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Defensor Sporting (H) 28.1%

ODDS 2.84 · IMPLIED 35.2% EV -12.1%

Draw 27.3%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -7.6%

Atletico Torque (A) 44.6%

ODDS 2.36 · IMPLIED 42.4% EV +5.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Defensor Sporting face Atletico Torque in Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Defensor Sporting a 28% chance, the draw 27% and Atletico Torque 45%, so Atletico Torque are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Defensor Sporting and 1.2 for Atletico Torque (2.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Defensor Sporting are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.83 for Atletico Torque. This match finished 1-3.

Defensor Sporting vs Atletico Torque Prediction— Uruguay - Primera División - Apertura

Match Preview & Prediction

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