Premiership

SCOTLAND · 30 MATCHES TRACKED · 25 APR 2026 – 17 MAY 2026

▲ STRONG-EDGE LEAGUE

MODEL EDGE ABOVE BREAK-EVEN IN THIS LEAGUE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 30 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

40.0%

1X2

12/30

70.0%

O/U 2.5

21/30

63.3%

BTTS

19/30

30.0%

Exact score

9/30

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

65.5%

Hit rate

19/29

1.65

Avg odds

+5.7%

ROI

+1.7u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

BTTS · N=22 68.2% HIT · AVG 1.63 · +9.9% ROI

HOME WIN · N=5 60.0% HIT · AVG 1.71 · -4.2% ROI

OVER 2.5 · N=2 50.0% HIT · AVG 1.68 · -15.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

✓ Solid

Bets

100%

Hit

+62.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

100%

Hit

+75.0%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

60%

Hit

-4.8%

ROI

Match log

30 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 15 PICKS · 10 HIT · 5 MISS

17 MAY Livingston vs Kilmarnock BTTS -6% 1–4 HIT 17 MAY Dundee FC vs Aberdeen BTTS -16% 3–2 HIT 17 MAY St. Mirren vs Dundee Utd BTTS -15% 1–1 HIT 16 MAY Hibernian vs Motherwell BTTS -14% 0–1 MISS 16 MAY Falkirk vs Rangers BTTS -7% 2–5 HIT 16 MAY Celtic vs Hearts BTTS -17% 3–1 HIT 13 MAY Hearts vs Falkirk Home -24% 3–0 HIT 13 MAY Rangers vs Hibernian BTTS -10% 1–2 HIT 13 MAY Motherwell vs Celtic BTTS -18% 2–3 HIT 12 MAY Aberdeen vs St. Mirren Home +7% 0–2 MISS 12 MAY Kilmarnock vs Dundee FC BTTS -9% 3–1 HIT 12 MAY Dundee Utd vs Livingston Over 2.5 -2% 0–0 MISS 10 MAY Celtic vs Rangers BTTS -15% 3–1 HIT 9 MAY St. Mirren vs Kilmarnock BTTS -13% 0–3 MISS 9 MAY Aberdeen vs Dundee Utd BTTS -12% 2–0 MISS