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Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 12:30

Kilmarnock

PPG 1.38 · HOME

1 – 5

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Celtic

PPG 1.75 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 63.4% vs bookmaker-implied 70.4%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.0%0-16.8%0-25.8%0-33.3%0-4+2.1%1 1-06.0%1-110.3%1-28.8%1-35.1%1-4+3.2%2 2-04.5%2-17.8%2-26.7%2-33.8%2-4+2.4%3 3-02.3%3-13.9%3-23.4%3-31.9%3-4+1.2%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.1%4+-21.8%4+-31.0%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 35.5% 14.8% 6.75 +139.6%

Draw 23.3% 19.6% 5.10 +11.3%

Away win 41.2% 72.5% 1.38 -43.1%

Over 2.5 63.4% 70.4% 1.42 -10.0%

Over 3.5 39.5% 47.6% 2.10 -17.1%

BTTS 62.9% 61.7% 1.62 +1.9%

Home O1.5 45.4% 29.9% 3.35 +52.1%

Away O1.5 48.2% 75.2% 1.33 -35.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -15.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-5

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.7 BTTS prob62.9%

A 41% / xG 1.5-1.7 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 63%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.8%

#4 2–2 6.7%

#5 0–2 5.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kilmarnock1.5

Celtic1.7

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.4% · O3.5 PROB 39.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KILMARNOCK · PPG 1.38

CELTIC · PPG 1.75

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.21 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kilmarnock (H) 35.5%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +139.6%

Draw 23.3%

ODDS 5.10 · IMPLIED 19.6% EV +11.3%

Celtic (A) 41.2%

ODDS 1.38 · IMPLIED 72.5% EV -43.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kilmarnock face Celtic in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kilmarnock a 36% chance, the draw 23% and Celtic 41%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kilmarnock and 1.7 for Celtic (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 63% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kilmarnock are averaging 1.38 points per game versus 1.75 for Celtic. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +72.6%. This match finished 1-5.

Kilmarnock vs Celtic Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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