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Falkirk vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 19:00

Falkirk

PPG 1.14 · HOME

LAST 5

LDL ··

UPCOMING

Rangers

PPG 1.78 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.9% vs bookmaker-implied 62.5%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.8%0-110.0%0-26.4%0-32.7%0-4+1.1%1 1-09.9%1-112.7%1-28.1%1-33.5%1-4+1.5%2 2-06.3%2-18.1%2-25.2%2-32.2%2-4+0.9%3 3-02.7%3-13.4%3-22.2%3-30.9%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-01.1%4+-11.4%4+-20.9%4+-30.4%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.4% 18.2% 5.50 +100.2%

Draw 26.9% 23.3% 4.30 +9.4%

Away win 36.7% 65.4% 1.53 -43.9%

Over 2.5 50.6% 63.7% 1.57 -20.6%

Over 3.5 28.7% 41.7% 2.40 -18.7%

BTTS 52.9% 62.5% 1.60 -15.4%

Home O1.5 38.4% 33.3% 3.00 +15.2%

Away O1.5 37.7% 65.4% 1.53 -42.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 2 20%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob52.9%

A 37% / xG 1.3-1.3 / O2.5 51% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.7%

#2 0–0 7.8%

#3 1–2 8.1%

#4 0–1 10.0%

#5 2–1 8.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Falkirk1.3

Rangers1.3

COMBINED 2.5 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.6% · O3.5 PROB 28.7%

Form & verdict PPG

FALKIRK · PPG 1.14

RANGERS · PPG 1.78

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.01 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Falkirk (H) 36.4%

ODDS 5.50 · IMPLIED 18.2% EV +100.2%

Draw 26.9%

ODDS 4.30 · IMPLIED 23.3% EV +9.4%

Rangers (A) 36.7%

ODDS 1.53 · IMPLIED 65.4% EV -43.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Falkirk face Rangers in Scotland - Premiership on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Falkirk a 36% chance, the draw 27% and Rangers 37%, so Rangers are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Falkirk and 1.3 for Rangers (2.5 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Falkirk are averaging 1.14 points per game versus 1.78 for Rangers. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +40.8%.

Falkirk vs Rangers Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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