Today / Scotland - Premiership / Celtic vs Aberdeen

Celtic vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Celtic

PPG 2.36 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

UPCOMING

Aberdeen

PPG 0.84 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 64.2% vs bookmaker-implied 81.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.6%0-14.5%0-21.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-011.7%1-19.3%1-23.7%1-31.0%1-4+0.2%2 2-012.2%2-19.7%2-23.9%2-31.0%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.5%3-16.7%3-22.7%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-07.1%4+-15.7%4+-22.2%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 64.2% 81.3% 1.23 -21.0%

Draw 20.8% 16.0% 6.25 +18.0%

Away win 15.0% 10.2% 9.80 +28.2%

Over 2.5 54.1% 72.5% 1.38 -25.3%

Over 3.5 34.4% 51.3% 1.95 -32.9%

BTTS 52.9% 57.1% 1.75 -7.4%

Home O1.5 60.2% 82.0% 1.22 -26.6%

Away O1.5 23.3% 23.8% 4.20 -1.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 48%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)2.1 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob52.9%

H 64% / xG 2.1-0.8 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 12.2%

#2 1–0 11.7%

#3 1–1 9.3%

#4 2–1 9.7%

#5 3–0 8.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celtic2.1

Aberdeen0.8

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 54.1% · O3.5 PROB 34.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTIC · PPG 2.36

ABERDEEN · PPG 0.84

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.29 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Celtic (H) 64.2%

ODDS 1.23 · IMPLIED 81.3% EV -21.0%

Draw 20.8%

ODDS 6.25 · IMPLIED 16.0% EV +18.0%

Aberdeen (A) 15.0%

ODDS 9.80 · IMPLIED 10.2% EV +28.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celtic face Aberdeen in Scotland - Premiership on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celtic a 64% chance, the draw 21% and Aberdeen 15%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.1 for Celtic and 0.8 for Aberdeen (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celtic are averaging 2.36 points per game versus 0.84 for Aberdeen. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +18.8%.

Celtic vs Aberdeen Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

More Scotland - Premiership Predictions