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Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Kilmarnock

PPG 0.99 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

UPCOMING

ST Mirren

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWD ··

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.1 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 63.7% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+14.7% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-04.3%0-17.2%0-25.9%0-33.2%0-4+1.9%1 1-06.5%1-110.7%1-28.8%1-34.8%1-4+2.9%2 2-04.8%2-17.9%2-26.5%2-33.6%2-4+2.1%3 3-02.4%3-13.9%3-23.2%3-31.8%3-4+1.1%4+ 4+-01.2%4+-12.0%4+-21.7%4+-30.9%4+-4+0.5%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 33.4% 36.8% 2.72 -9.2%

Draw 22.9% 28.6% 3.50 -11.9%

Away win 43.7% 41.7% 2.40 +4.9%

Over 2.5 63.7% 55.6% 1.80 +14.7%

Over 3.5 40.5% 33.3% 3.00 +21.5%

BTTS 61.5% 60.6% 1.65 +1.5%

Home O1.5 39.9% 42.6% 2.35 -6.2%

Away O1.5 47.9% 46.5% 2.15 +3.0%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 3 42%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.6 BTTS prob61.5%

A 44% / xG 1.5-1.6 / O2.5 64% / BTTS 62%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.7%

#2 1–2 8.8%

#3 2–1 7.9%

#4 0–2 5.9%

#5 0–1 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kilmarnock1.5

ST Mirren1.6

COMBINED 3.1 xG → O2.5 PROB 63.7% · O3.5 PROB 40.5%

Form & verdict PPG

KILMARNOCK · PPG 0.99

ST MIRREN · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap -0.16 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Kilmarnock (H) 33.4%

ODDS 2.72 · IMPLIED 36.8% EV -9.2%

Draw 22.9%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -11.9%

ST Mirren (A) 43.7%

ODDS 2.40 · IMPLIED 41.7% EV +4.9%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kilmarnock face ST Mirren in Scotland - Premiership on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kilmarnock a 33% chance, the draw 23% and ST Mirren 44%, so ST Mirren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Kilmarnock and 1.6 for ST Mirren (3.1 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 64% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 62% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kilmarnock are averaging 0.99 points per game versus 1.32 for ST Mirren. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +21.5%.

Kilmarnock vs ST Mirren Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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