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ST Mirren vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

ST Mirren

PPG 1.59 · HOME

LAST 5

WWD ··

3 – 3

FULL TIME

Motherwell

PPG 1.65 · AWAY

LAST 5

WDD ··

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.8%0-110.1%0-25.1%0-31.8%0-4+0.6%1 1-012.8%1-113.0%1-26.7%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.3%2-18.5%2-24.3%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.6%3-13.7%3-21.9%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.5%4+-11.6%4+-20.8%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 43.9% 40.8% 2.45 +7.6%

Draw 28.2% 30.8% 3.25 -5.0%

Away win 28.0% 37.0% 2.70 -14.6%

Over 2.5 44.7% 50.0% 2.00 -10.6%

Over 3.5 25.6% 29.4% 3.40 -7.8%

BTTS 48.1% 57.8% 1.73 -16.8%

Home O1.5 37.2% 42.0% 2.38 -11.5%

Away O1.5 32.6% 40.0% 2.50 -18.5%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 28%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 3-3

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob48.1%

H 44% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 48%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.0%

#2 1–0 12.8%

#3 0–0 9.8%

#4 2–1 8.5%

#5 2–0 8.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

ST Mirren1.3

Motherwell1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.7% · O3.5 PROB 25.6%

Form & verdict PPG

ST MIRREN · PPG 1.59

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.65

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.27, combined xG 2.32 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

ST Mirren (H) 43.9%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV +7.6%

Draw 28.2%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -5.0%

Motherwell (A) 28.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV -14.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

ST Mirren face Motherwell in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives ST Mirren a 44% chance, the draw 28% and Motherwell 28%, so ST Mirren are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for ST Mirren and 1.0 for Motherwell (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 48% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, ST Mirren are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 1.65 for Motherwell. This match finished 3-3.

ST Mirren vs Motherwell Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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