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Dundee Utd vs Dundee Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 3 ·Saturday, August 22, 2026, 16:45

Dundee Utd

PPG 1.40 · HOME

LAST 5

DLLW ·

0 – 2

FULL TIME

Dundee

PPG 0.75 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWWL ·

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-19.7%0-24.9%0-31.7%0-4+0.5%1 1-012.7%1-112.9%1-26.6%1-32.2%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.5%2-18.6%2-24.4%2-31.5%2-4+0.5%3 3-03.8%3-13.8%3-22.0%3-30.7%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.7%4+-11.7%4+-20.9%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 40.8% 47.2% 2.12 -13.5%

Draw 28.0% 28.6% 3.50 -1.2%

Away win 31.2% 31.3% 3.20 -0.2%

Over 2.5 44.8% 54.6% 1.83 -18.0%

Over 3.5 27.3% 32.3% 3.10 -9.2%

BTTS 49.1% 58.8% 1.70 -16.5%

Home O1.5 37.8% 50.0% 2.00 -24.4%

Away O1.5 32.2% 37.7% 2.65 -14.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 29%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-2

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob49.1%

D 28% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 45% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.9%

#2 1–0 12.7%

#3 0–0 9.5%

#4 0–1 9.7%

#5 2–1 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee Utd1.3

Dundee1.0

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 44.8% · O3.5 PROB 27.3%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 1.40

DUNDEE · PPG 0.75

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.31, combined xG 2.35 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dundee Utd (H) 40.8%

ODDS 2.12 · IMPLIED 47.2% EV -13.5%

Draw 28.0%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -1.2%

Dundee (A) 31.2%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -0.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee Utd face Dundee in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, August 22, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee Utd a 41% chance, the draw 28% and Dundee 31%, so Dundee Utd are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Dundee Utd and 1.0 for Dundee (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 45% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee Utd are averaging 1.40 points per game versus 0.75 for Dundee. This match finished 0-2.

Dundee Utd vs Dundee Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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