Today / Scotland - Premiership / Dundee vs ST Johnstone

Dundee vs ST Johnstone Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Dundee

PPG 1.56 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWL ·

UPCOMING

ST Johnstone

PPG 1.07 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLL ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 55.9% vs bookmaker-implied 58.8%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.3%0-16.8%0-23.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-010.6%1-111.5%1-26.2%1-32.2%1-4+0.8%2 2-08.9%2-19.7%2-25.2%2-31.9%2-4+0.6%3 3-05.0%3-15.4%3-22.9%3-31.1%3-4+0.4%4+ 4+-03.1%4+-13.3%4+-21.8%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 50.9% 39.1% 2.56 +30.3%

Draw 24.2% 29.4% 3.40 -10.6%

Away win 24.9% 38.8% 2.58 -21.4%

Over 2.5 53.8% 54.1% 1.85 -0.5%

Over 3.5 33.1% 30.8% 3.25 +7.6%

BTTS 55.9% 58.8% 1.70 -5.0%

Home O1.5 49.9% 42.6% 2.35 +17.3%

Away O1.5 32.8% 42.0% 2.38 -21.9%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 39%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.7 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob55.9%

H 51% / xG 1.7-1.1 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.5%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 8.9%

#4 1–0 10.6%

#5 0–0 6.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee1.7

ST Johnstone1.1

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.8% · O3.5 PROB 33.1%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE · PPG 1.56

ST JOHNSTONE · PPG 1.07

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dundee (H) 50.9%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV +30.3%

Draw 24.2%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -10.6%

ST Johnstone (A) 24.9%

ODDS 2.58 · IMPLIED 38.8% EV -21.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee face ST Johnstone in Scotland - Premiership on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee a 51% chance, the draw 24% and ST Johnstone 25%, so Dundee are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.7 for Dundee and 1.1 for ST Johnstone (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee are averaging 1.56 points per game versus 1.07 for ST Johnstone. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +32.9%.

Dundee vs ST Johnstone Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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