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Motherwell vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Wednesday, September 2, 2026, 18:45

Motherwell

PPG 1.63 · HOME

LAST 5

WDD ··

UPCOMING

Dundee Utd

PPG 1.22 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 2.9 puts the goal expectation above the line. Model probability 59.6% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-05.5%0-15.5%0-22.8%0-30.9%0-4+0.3%1 1-010.4%1-110.5%1-25.3%1-31.8%1-4+0.6%2 2-09.8%2-19.9%2-25.0%2-31.7%2-4+0.5%3 3-06.2%3-16.3%3-23.2%3-31.1%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-04.5%4+-14.6%4+-22.3%4+-30.8%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 53.3% 50.8% 1.97 +5.0%

Draw 23.9% 27.4% 3.65 -7.7%

Away win 22.8% 29.0% 3.45 -12.8%

Over 2.5 59.6% 60.6% 1.65 -1.7%

Over 3.5 36.4% 38.2% 2.62 -4.6%

BTTS 55.9% 63.7% 1.57 -12.2%

Home O1.5 55.8% 55.6% 1.80 +0.4%

Away O1.5 30.9% 39.2% 2.55 -21.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob55.9%

H 53% / xG 1.9-1.0 / O2.5 60% / BTTS 56%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–1 9.9%

#3 2–0 9.8%

#4 1–0 10.4%

#5 0–0 5.5%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motherwell1.9

Dundee Utd1.0

COMBINED 2.9 xG → O2.5 PROB 59.6% · O3.5 PROB 36.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.63

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 1.22

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.88 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Motherwell (H) 53.3%

ODDS 1.97 · IMPLIED 50.8% EV +5.0%

Draw 23.9%

ODDS 3.65 · IMPLIED 27.4% EV -7.7%

Dundee Utd (A) 22.8%

ODDS 3.45 · IMPLIED 29.0% EV -12.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motherwell face Dundee Utd in Scotland - Premiership on Wednesday, September 2, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motherwell a 53% chance, the draw 24% and Dundee Utd 23%, so Motherwell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Motherwell and 1.0 for Dundee Utd (2.9 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 60% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 56% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motherwell are averaging 1.63 points per game versus 1.22 for Dundee Utd. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +11.9%.

Motherwell vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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