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Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 5 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:45

Hibernian

PPG 1.29 · HOME

LAST 5

LWW ··

UPCOMING

Heart Of Midlothian

PPG 1.32 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 59.0% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.0%0-17.6%0-24.8%0-32.0%0-4+0.8%1 1-09.3%1-111.8%1-27.4%1-33.1%1-4+1.3%2 2-07.2%2-19.1%2-25.8%2-32.4%2-4+1.0%3 3-03.7%3-14.7%3-23.0%3-31.3%3-4+0.5%4+ 4+-02.0%4+-12.6%4+-21.6%4+-30.7%4+-4+0.3%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.9% 40.0% 2.50 +7.2%

Draw 23.4% 29.4% 3.40 -12.3%

Away win 33.7% 37.7% 2.65 -10.7%

Over 2.5 56.8% 54.1% 1.85 +5.1%

Over 3.5 35.1% 32.3% 3.10 +8.8%

BTTS 59.0% 59.9% 1.67 -1.5%

Home O1.5 44.4% 44.4% 2.25 -0.1%

Away O1.5 36.9% 42.6% 2.35 -13.3%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 40%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob59.0%

H 43% / xG 1.5-1.3 / O2.5 57% / BTTS 59%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 11.8%

#2 2–1 9.1%

#3 1–2 7.4%

#4 1–0 9.3%

#5 2–0 7.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Hibernian1.5

Heart Of Midlothian1.3

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 56.8% · O3.5 PROB 35.1%

Form & verdict PPG

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.29

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN · PPG 1.32

✓ FAIR - Balanced matchup, limited value

60%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.28 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Hibernian (H) 42.9%

ODDS 2.50 · IMPLIED 40.0% EV +7.2%

Draw 23.4%

ODDS 3.40 · IMPLIED 29.4% EV -12.3%

Heart Of Midlothian (A) 33.7%

ODDS 2.65 · IMPLIED 37.7% EV -10.7%

Match Preview & Prediction

Hibernian face Heart Of Midlothian in Scotland - Premiership on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Hibernian a 43% chance, the draw 23% and Heart Of Midlothian 34%, so Hibernian are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Hibernian and 1.3 for Heart Of Midlothian (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 57% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 59% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Hibernian are averaging 1.29 points per game versus 1.32 for Heart Of Midlothian. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.8%.

Hibernian vs Heart Of Midlothian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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