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Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Heart Of Midlothian

PPG 2.20 · HOME

4 – 0

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Dundee Utd

PPG 1.10 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.4% vs bookmaker-implied 61.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.1%0-15.6%0-22.6%0-30.8%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.5%1-110.5%1-24.8%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-010.8%2-19.9%2-24.5%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-06.8%3-16.2%3-22.8%3-30.9%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-04.9%4+-14.5%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.4% 61.3% 1.63 -8.1%

Draw 22.6% 25.6% 3.90 -7.1%

Away win 21.1% 20.0% 5.00 +3.3%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 53.7% 57.8% 1.73 -7.1%

Home O1.5 55.4% 60.6% 1.65 -8.6%

Away O1.5 25.3% 29.9% 3.35 -9.2%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -15.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 4-0

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob53.7%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 54% / BTTS 54%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.5%

#2 2–0 10.8%

#3 1–0 11.5%

#4 2–1 9.9%

#5 0–0 6.1%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Heart Of Midlothian1.9

Dundee Utd0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

HEART OF MIDLOTHIAN · PPG 2.20

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 1.10

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.96 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Heart Of Midlothian (H) 56.4%

ODDS 1.63 · IMPLIED 61.3% EV -8.1%

Draw 22.6%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -7.1%

Dundee Utd (A) 21.1%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +3.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Heart Of Midlothian face Dundee Utd in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Heart Of Midlothian a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Dundee Utd 21%, so Heart Of Midlothian are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Heart Of Midlothian and 0.9 for Dundee Utd (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 54% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Heart Of Midlothian are averaging 2.20 points per game versus 1.10 for Dundee Utd. This match finished 4-0.

Heart Of Midlothian vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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