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Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Kilmarnock

PPG 1.15 · HOME

LAST 5

LLL ··

0 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · O2.5

Dundee Utd

PPG 0.92 · AWAY

LAST 5

DLLW ·

// Model verdict

Over 2.5

Combined xG of 3.2 puts the goal expectation well above the line. Model probability 62.9% vs bookmaker-implied 55.6% — a clear edge.

+13.2% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-03.9%0-14.9%0-23.1%0-31.3%0-4+0.5%1 1-07.7%1-19.7%1-26.1%1-32.6%1-4+1.1%2 2-07.7%2-19.7%2-26.1%2-32.6%2-4+1.1%3 3-05.1%3-16.4%3-24.0%3-31.7%3-4+0.7%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-15.0%4+-23.2%4+-31.3%4+-4+0.6%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 51.5% 39.2% 2.55 +31.3%

Draw 22.2% 28.6% 3.50 -13.4%

Away win 26.3% 39.1% 2.56 -19.6%

Over 2.5 62.9% 55.6% 1.80 +13.2%

Over 3.5 39.3% 33.3% 3.00 +17.9%

BTTS 61.1% 61.7% 1.62 -1.0%

Home O1.5 56.3% 44.4% 2.25 +26.7%

Away O1.5 36.6% 44.4% 2.25 -17.6%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 1 49%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-4

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)1.3 BTTS prob61.1%

H 52% / xG 2.0-1.3 / O2.5 63% / BTTS 61%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 9.7%

#2 2–1 9.7%

#3 2–0 7.7%

#4 1–2 6.1%

#5 3–1 6.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Kilmarnock2.0

Dundee Utd1.3

COMBINED 3.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 62.9% · O3.5 PROB 39.3%

Form & verdict PPG

KILMARNOCK · PPG 1.15

DUNDEE UTD · PPG 0.92

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.72 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Kilmarnock (H) 51.5%

ODDS 2.55 · IMPLIED 39.2% EV +31.3%

Draw 22.2%

ODDS 3.50 · IMPLIED 28.6% EV -13.4%

Dundee Utd (A) 26.3%

ODDS 2.56 · IMPLIED 39.1% EV -19.6%

Match Preview & Prediction

Kilmarnock face Dundee Utd in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Kilmarnock a 52% chance, the draw 22% and Dundee Utd 26%, so Kilmarnock are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Kilmarnock and 1.3 for Dundee Utd (3.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 63% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 61% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Kilmarnock are averaging 1.15 points per game versus 0.92 for Dundee Utd. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +39.0%. This match finished 0-4.

Kilmarnock vs Dundee Utd Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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