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Celtic vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 14:00

Celtic

PPG 2.25 · HOME

LAST 5

WWW ··

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Falkirk

PPG 1.30 · AWAY

LAST 5

LDL ··

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 56.1% vs bookmaker-implied 83.3%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.2%0-15.4%0-22.3%0-30.7%0-4+0.2%1 1-011.9%1-110.3%1-24.4%1-31.3%1-4+0.3%2 2-011.4%2-19.8%2-24.3%2-31.2%2-4+0.3%3 3-07.3%3-16.3%3-22.7%3-30.8%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-05.4%4+-14.7%4+-22.0%4+-30.6%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 56.1% 83.3% 1.20 -32.7%

Draw 22.7% 14.8% 6.75 +31.9%

Away win 21.2% 8.7% 11.50 +86.3%

Over 2.5 51.7% 74.1% 1.35 -30.2%

Over 3.5 31.4% 54.1% 1.85 -41.9%

BTTS 49.2% 55.6% 1.80 -11.4%

Home O1.5 56.3% 83.3% 1.20 -32.4%

Away O1.5 24.7% 22.2% 4.50 +6.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.9 xG (away)0.9 BTTS prob49.2%

H 56% / xG 1.9-0.9 / O2.5 52% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 10.3%

#2 2–0 11.4%

#3 1–0 11.9%

#4 2–1✓ 9.8%

#5 0–0 6.2%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Celtic1.9

Falkirk0.9

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 51.7% · O3.5 PROB 31.4%

Form & verdict PPG

CELTIC · PPG 2.25

FALKIRK · PPG 1.30

✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.05 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Celtic (H) 56.1%

ODDS 1.20 · IMPLIED 83.3% EV -32.7%

Draw 22.7%

ODDS 6.75 · IMPLIED 14.8% EV +31.9%

Falkirk (A) 21.2%

ODDS 11.50 · IMPLIED 8.7% EV +86.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Celtic face Falkirk in Scotland - Premiership on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Celtic a 56% chance, the draw 23% and Falkirk 21%, so Celtic are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.9 for Celtic and 0.9 for Falkirk (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Celtic are averaging 2.25 points per game versus 1.30 for Falkirk. The best value bet our model finds is A/O25, with an expected value of +61.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Celtic vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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