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Motherwell vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 2 ·Sunday, August 9, 2026, 14:00

Motherwell

PPG 1.75 · HOME

0 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · HOME

Falkirk

PPG 1.36 · AWAY

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 63.0% vs bookmaker-implied 55.2% — a clear edge.

+14.0% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-06.4%0-14.6%0-21.7%0-30.4%0-4+0.1%1 1-013.0%1-19.4%1-23.4%1-30.8%1-4+0.2%2 2-013.1%2-19.5%2-23.4%2-30.8%2-4+0.2%3 3-08.9%3-16.4%3-22.3%3-30.6%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-07.2%4+-15.2%4+-21.9%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 63.0% 55.2% 1.81 +14.0%

Draw 21.0% 26.7% 3.75 -12.8%

Away win 15.9% 25.0% 4.00 -21.8%

Over 2.5 53.5% 58.8% 1.70 -9.0%

Over 3.5 32.3% 35.7% 2.80 -9.6%

BTTS 49.8% 60.6% 1.65 -17.8%

Home O1.5 56.2% 57.1% 1.75 -1.7%

Away O1.5 17.4% 34.5% 2.90 -29.7%

League track record ↗

Based on 40 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 43%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 63%

Score Hit 33%

ROI -15.5%

Bet Hit 50%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

3 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)2.0 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob49.8%

H 63% / xG 2.0-0.7 / O2.5 54% / NoBTTS 50%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 2–0 13.1%

#2 1–0 13.0%

#3 1–1 9.4%

#4 2–1 9.5%

#5 3–0 8.9%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Motherwell2.0

Falkirk0.7

COMBINED 2.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 53.5% · O3.5 PROB 32.3%

Form & verdict PPG

MOTHERWELL · PPG 1.75

FALKIRK · PPG 1.36

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +1.31 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Motherwell (H) 63.0%

ODDS 1.81 · IMPLIED 55.2% EV +14.0%

Draw 21.0%

ODDS 3.75 · IMPLIED 26.7% EV -12.8%

Falkirk (A) 15.9%

ODDS 4.00 · IMPLIED 25.0% EV -21.8%

Match Preview & Prediction

Motherwell face Falkirk in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, August 9, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Motherwell a 63% chance, the draw 21% and Falkirk 16%, so Motherwell are favoured to win. Expected goals are 2.0 for Motherwell and 0.7 for Falkirk (2.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 2-0. There is a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 50% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Motherwell are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.36 for Falkirk. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +6.0%. This match finished 0-0.

Motherwell vs Falkirk Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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