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Dundee vs Hibernian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 14:00

Dundee

PPG 1.82 · HOME

LAST 5

LWWL ·

1 – 2

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Hibernian

PPG 1.71 · AWAY

LAST 5

LWW ··

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 52.7% vs bookmaker-implied 59.9%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-07.4%0-17.9%0-24.1%0-31.5%0-4+0.5%1 1-011.5%1-112.1%1-26.4%1-32.3%1-4+0.7%2 2-08.8%2-19.3%2-24.9%2-31.7%2-4+0.6%3 3-04.5%3-14.8%3-22.5%3-30.9%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-02.5%4+-12.6%4+-21.4%4+-30.5%4+-4+0.2%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.0% 34.5% 2.90 +36.3%

Draw 27.1% 30.8% 3.25 -7.2%

Away win 25.9% 43.5% 2.30 -24.3%

Over 2.5 50.5% 55.6% 1.80 -9.1%

Over 3.5 28.9% 31.3% 3.20 -4.5%

BTTS 52.7% 59.9% 1.67 -12.0%

Home O1.5 43.6% 38.2% 2.62 +14.2%

Away O1.5 32.6% 50.0% 2.00 -34.8%

League track record ↗

Based on 46 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 39%

O2.5 65%

BTTS 59%

Score Hit 30%

ROI -1.9%

Bet Hit 57%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 1 26%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-2

xG (home)1.5 xG (away)1.1 BTTS prob52.7%

H 47% / xG 1.5-1.1 / O2.5 50% / BTTS 53%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 12.1%

#2 1–0 11.5%

#3 2–1 9.3%

#4 2–0 8.8%

#5 0–0 7.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dundee1.5

Hibernian1.1

COMBINED 2.6 xG → O2.5 PROB 50.5% · O3.5 PROB 28.9%

Form & verdict PPG

DUNDEE · PPG 1.82

HIBERNIAN · PPG 1.71

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

xG gap +0.49 - no reliable favorite, elevated draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Dundee (H) 47.0%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV +36.3%

Draw 27.1%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -7.2%

Hibernian (A) 25.9%

ODDS 2.30 · IMPLIED 43.5% EV -24.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dundee face Hibernian in Scotland - Premiership on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dundee a 47% chance, the draw 27% and Hibernian 26%, so Dundee are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.5 for Dundee and 1.1 for Hibernian (2.6 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 53% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dundee are averaging 1.82 points per game versus 1.71 for Hibernian. The best value bet our model finds is RES_H/O15, with an expected value of +32.1%. This match finished 1-2.

Dundee vs Hibernian Prediction— Scotland - Premiership

Match Preview & Prediction

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