First League

MONTENEGRO · 34 MATCHES TRACKED · 18 APR 2026 – 24 MAY 2026

▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE

SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE

// Model accuracy

How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 34 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.

41.2%

1X2

14/34

55.9%

O/U 2.5

19/34

50.0%

BTTS

17/34

47.1%

Exact score

16/34

// Published picks

Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.

Settled

33.3%

Hit rate

6/18

1.83

Avg odds

-42.3%

ROI

-7.6u

Picks by market

FLAT 1U · BREAK-EVEN AT IMPLIED % MARKED ▎· SMALL SAMPLES — READ WITH CARE

HOME WIN · N=10 40.0% HIT · AVG 1.73 · -36.1% ROI

BTTS · N=8 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.97 · -50.0% ROI

Picks by verdict tier

VERDICTS NORMALIZED INTO CONFIDENCE TIERS · LOW-CONFIDENCE FLAG OVERRIDES

🎯 Strong bet

Bets

50%

Hit

-7.5%

ROI

✓ Solid

Bets

Hit

-100.0%

ROI

✓ Fair / Caution

Bets

33%

Hit

-31.7%

ROI

⚠ Low confidence

Bets

36%

Hit

-41.0%

ROI

Match log

34 RESOLVED · GROUPED BY MONTH · — MEANS NO PICK PUBLISHED

DateMatchPickEVFTResult

May 2026 // 7 PICKS · 4 HIT · 3 MISS

24 MAY Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG BTTS +1% 1–4 HIT 24 MAY Petrovac vs Buducnost — NO PICK 1–1 —24 MAY Sutjeska vs Jedinstvo Home +19% 1–3 MISS 24 MAY Jezero vs Mornar Bar — NO PICK 0–2 —24 MAY Bokelj vs Decic BTTS +8% 1–0 MISS 20 MAY Mladost DG vs Sutjeska BTTS +2% 0–1 MISS 20 MAY Mornar Bar vs Petrovac — NO PICK 1–1 —20 MAY Jedinstvo vs Jezero — NO PICK 2–0 —20 MAY Decic vs Arsenal Tivat — NO PICK 1–2 —20 MAY Buducnost vs Bokelj — NO PICK 2–1 —16 MAY Buducnost vs Mornar Bar — NO PICK 0–0 —16 MAY Sutjeska vs Decic Home -21% 3–0 HIT 16 MAY Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat — NO PICK 3–0 —16 MAY Petrovac vs Jedinstvo Home -16% 1–0 HIT 16 MAY Jezero vs Mladost DG BTTS +6% 2–2 HIT