Leagues / MONTENEGRO / First League
First League
▼ THIN-EDGE LEAGUE
SHARP MARKET — MODEL EDGE BELOW BREAK-EVEN HERE
Upcoming First League predictions
DateMatchPickProbOddsEV
3 SEPT18:00 Mornar vs Bokelj — NO PICK — — —// Model accuracy
How often the model's probability calls were right — graded on all 43 resolved matches, whether or not a bet was published.
41.9%
1X2
18/43
58.1%
O/U 2.5
25/43
51.2%
BTTS
22/43
53.5%
Exact score
23/43
// Published picks
Picks that met publication thresholds, settled at listed odds with a flat 1-unit stake. Separate from raw model accuracy on the left.
13
Settled
23.1%
Hit rate
3/13
2.00
Avg odds
-55.0%
ROI
-7.2u
Picks by market
BTTS · N=8 25.0% HIT · AVG 1.98 · -50.0% ROI
HOME WIN · N=5 20.0% HIT · AVG 2.04 · -63.0% ROI
Picks by verdict tier
🎯 Strong bet
2
Bets
50%
Hit
-7.5%
ROI
✓ Solid
2
Bets
0%
Hit
-100.0%
ROI
✓ Fair / Caution
4
Bets
25%
Hit
-48.8%
ROI
⚠ Low confidence
5
Bets
20%
Hit
-61.0%
ROI
Match log
DateMatchPickEVFTResult
August 2026 // 2 PICKS · 1 HIT · 1 MISS
30 AUG Buducnost Podgorica vs Bokelj — NO PICK 0–0 —30 AUG Dečić vs Jezero Home -3% 2–1 HIT29 AUG Petrovac vs Mornar — NO PICK 1–1 —28 AUG Sutjeska vs Mladost DG — NO PICK 5–1 —23 AUG Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat — NO PICK 0–0 —22 AUG Mladost DG vs Petrovac BTTS +7% 0–0 MISS22 AUG Jezero vs Sutjeska — NO PICK 0–0 —21 AUG Mornar vs Buducnost Podgorica — NO PICK 2–1 —17 AUG Dečić vs Bokelj — NO PICK 1–0 —May 2026 // 3 PICKS · 1 HIT · 2 MISS
24 MAY Sutjeska vs Jedinstvo Home +19% 1–3 MISS24 MAY Petrovac vs Buducnost — NO PICK 1–1 —24 MAY Jezero vs Mornar Bar — NO PICK 0–2 —24 MAY Bokelj vs Decic BTTS +8% 1–0 MISS24 MAY Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG BTTS +1% 1–4 HIT20 MAY Mornar Bar vs Petrovac — NO PICK 1–1 —