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Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:00

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 1.59 · HOME

1 – 4

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · BTTS

Mladost DG

PPG 0.94 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 51.3% — a real, if thin, edge.

+0.6% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-010.3%0-110.2%0-25.0%0-31.6%0-4+0.5%1 1-013.3%1-113.1%1-26.4%1-32.1%1-4+0.6%2 2-08.5%2-18.4%2-24.1%2-31.4%2-4+0.4%3 3-03.7%3-13.6%3-21.8%3-30.6%3-4+0.2%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 45.5% 20.0% 5.00 +127.5%

Draw 28.4% 27.8% 3.60 +1.3%

Away win 26.1% 66.7% 1.50 -36.5%

Over 2.5 46.2% 48.1% 2.08 -3.9%

Over 3.5 19.4% 29.9% 3.34 -21.1%

BTTS 51.6% 51.3% 1.95 +0.6%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 27%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-4

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)1.0 BTTS prob51.6%

H 46% / xG 1.3-1.0 / U2.5 46% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.1%

#2 0–0 10.3%

#3 1–0 13.3%

#4 2–0 8.5%

#5 2–1 8.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Arsenal Tivat1.3

Mladost DG1.0

COMBINED 2.3 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.2% · O3.5 PROB 19.4%

Form & verdict PPG

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 1.59

MLADOST DG · PPG 0.94

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Moderate edge + strong value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

Home slight advantage: GOOD (1.59) > Away POOR (0.94)

Win probability 1X2

Arsenal Tivat (H) 45.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +127.5%

Draw 28.4%

ODDS 3.60 · IMPLIED 27.8% EV +1.3%

Mladost DG (A) 26.1%

ODDS 1.50 · IMPLIED 66.7% EV -36.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Arsenal Tivat face Mladost DG in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Arsenal Tivat a 46% chance, the draw 28% and Mladost DG 26%, so Arsenal Tivat are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Arsenal Tivat and 1.0 for Mladost DG (2.3 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Arsenal Tivat are averaging 1.59 points per game versus 0.94 for Mladost DG. The best value bet our model finds is a home win, with an expected value of +127.5%. This match finished 1-4.

Arsenal Tivat vs Mladost DG Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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