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Mornar vs Buducnost Podgorica Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 4 ·Friday, August 21, 2026, 18:00

Mornar

PPG 1.78 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

2 – 1

FULL TIME

Buducnost Podgorica

PPG 1.44 · AWAY

LAST 5

WLDLD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-017.8%0-110.0%0-22.8%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-020.7%1-111.6%1-23.3%1-30.6%1-4+0.1%2 2-012.1%2-16.8%2-21.9%2-30.4%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.7%3-12.6%3-20.7%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.8%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.6% 54.1% 1.85 -13.8%

Draw 32.1% 34.5% 2.90 -6.9%

Away win 21.3% 25.6% 3.90 -10.2%

Over 2.5 34.5% 45.5% 2.20 -24.1%

Over 3.5 18.2% 23.8% 4.20 -14.1%

BTTS 43.6% 52.4% 1.91 -16.7%

Home O1.5 31.5% 45.5% 2.20 -30.7%

Away O1.5 16.4% 26.7% 3.75 -23.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 43%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.6%

H 47% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 34% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 20.7%

#2 0–0 17.8%

#3 1–1 11.6%

#4 2–0 12.1%

#5 0–1 10.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mornar1.2

Buducnost Podgorica0.6

COMBINED 1.7 xG → O2.5 PROB 34.5% · O3.5 PROB 18.2%

Form & verdict PPG

MORNAR · PPG 1.78

BUDUCNOST PODGORICA · PPG 1.44

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

52%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.60 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mornar (H) 46.6%

ODDS 1.85 · IMPLIED 54.1% EV -13.8%

Draw 32.1%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -6.9%

Buducnost Podgorica (A) 21.3%

ODDS 3.90 · IMPLIED 25.6% EV -10.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mornar face Buducnost Podgorica in Montenegro - First League on Friday, August 21, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mornar a 47% chance, the draw 32% and Buducnost Podgorica 21%, so Mornar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mornar and 0.6 for Buducnost Podgorica (1.7 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 35% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mornar are averaging 1.78 points per game versus 1.44 for Buducnost Podgorica. This match finished 2-1.

Mornar vs Buducnost Podgorica Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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