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Mornar vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 6 ·Thursday, September 3, 2026, 18:00

Mornar

PPG 1.95 · HOME

LAST 5

DDWWD

UPCOMING

Bokelj

PPG 1.25 · AWAY

LAST 5

WWLDD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-016.8%0-110.4%0-23.2%0-30.7%0-4+0.1%1 1-019.5%1-112.1%1-23.8%1-30.8%1-4+0.1%2 2-011.4%2-17.0%2-22.2%2-30.5%2-4+0.1%3 3-04.4%3-12.7%3-20.8%3-30.2%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-01.6%4+-11.0%4+-20.3%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 46.1% 61.7% 1.62 -25.3%

Draw 31.4% 30.8% 3.25 +2.1%

Away win 22.5% 20.0% 5.00 +7.5%

Over 2.5 38.2% 43.5% 2.30 -12.1%

Over 3.5 18.4% 26.9% 3.72 -18.9%

BTTS 42.4% 48.8% 2.05 -13.1%

Home O1.5 31.8% 53.5% 1.87 -40.5%

Away O1.5 15.4% 21.1% 4.75 -16.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 41%CONFIDENCE

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob42.4%

H 46% / xG 1.2-0.6 / U2.5 38% / NoBTTS 42%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 19.5%

#2 0–0 16.8%

#3 1–1 12.1%

#4 2–0 11.4%

#5 0–1 10.4%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mornar1.2

Bokelj0.6

COMBINED 1.8 xG → O2.5 PROB 38.2% · O3.5 PROB 18.4%

Form & verdict PPG

MORNAR · PPG 1.95

BOKELJ · PPG 1.25

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.54 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Mornar (H) 46.1%

ODDS 1.62 · IMPLIED 61.7% EV -25.3%

Draw 31.4%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV +2.1%

Bokelj (A) 22.5%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV +7.5%

Match Preview & Prediction

Mornar face Bokelj in Montenegro - First League on Thursday, September 3, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mornar a 46% chance, the draw 31% and Bokelj 23%, so Mornar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Mornar and 0.6 for Bokelj (1.8 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 38% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 42% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mornar are averaging 1.95 points per game versus 1.25 for Bokelj.

Mornar vs Bokelj Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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