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Bokelj vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 36 ·Sunday, May 24, 2026, 18:00

Bokelj

PPG 0.94 · HOME

1 – 0

FULL TIME

✘ MODEL PICK MISS · BTTS

Decic

PPG 1.18 · AWAY

// Model verdict

BTTS

Model probability 51.6% vs bookmaker-implied 47.6% — a real, if thin, edge.

+8.4% EXPECTED VALUE ↗

ROI TRACKED

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-09.5%0-111.1%0-26.4%0-32.5%0-4+0.9%1 1-011.3%1-113.2%1-27.6%1-33.0%1-4+1.1%2 2-06.7%2-17.8%2-24.5%2-31.8%2-4+0.7%3 3-02.7%3-13.1%3-21.8%3-30.7%3-4+0.3%4+ 4+-01.0%4+-11.2%4+-20.7%4+-30.3%4+-4+0.1%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 36.6% 60.6% 1.65 -39.6%

Draw 27.8% 31.3% 3.20 -6.6%

Away win 35.5% 20.8% 4.80 +70.4%

Over 2.5 46.9% 42.0% 2.38 +11.6%

Over 3.5 21.1% 23.1% 4.33 -5.2%

BTTS 51.6% 47.6% 2.10 +8.4%

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

1 – 1 22%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-0

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)1.2 BTTS prob51.6%

H 37% / xG 1.2-1.2 / U2.5 47% / BTTS 52%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–1 13.2%

#2 0–0 9.5%

#3 1–0✓ 11.3%

#4 0–1 11.1%

#5 2–1 7.8%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bokelj1.2

Decic1.2

COMBINED 2.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 46.9% · O3.5 PROB 21.1%

Form & verdict PPG

BOKELJ · PPG 0.94

DECIC · PPG 1.18

✓ INTERESTING - Balanced match with high-value opportunity

70%

BALANCED

Balanced matchup: Home POOR (0.94), Away AVERAGE (1.18)

Win probability 1X2

Bokelj (H) 36.6%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -39.6%

Draw 27.8%

ODDS 3.20 · IMPLIED 31.3% EV -6.6%

Decic (A) 35.5%

ODDS 4.80 · IMPLIED 20.8% EV +70.4%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bokelj face Decic in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, May 24, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bokelj a 37% chance, the draw 28% and Decic 36%, so Bokelj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Bokelj and 1.2 for Decic (2.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-1. There is a 47% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 52% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bokelj are averaging 0.94 points per game versus 1.18 for Decic. The best value bet our model finds is an away win, with an expected value of +70.4%. This match finished 1-0.

Bokelj vs Decic Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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