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Petrovac vs Mornar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 5 ·Saturday, August 29, 2026, 18:00

Petrovac

PPG 1.60 · HOME

LAST 5

LDWDD

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Mornar

PPG 1.72 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDWWD

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.6%0-111.3%0-24.7%0-31.3%0-4+0.3%1 1-015.9%1-113.1%1-25.4%1-31.5%1-4+0.4%2 2-09.3%2-17.7%2-23.2%2-30.9%2-4+0.2%3 3-03.6%3-13.0%3-21.2%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.3%4+-11.1%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 44.0% 37.0% 2.70 +18.8%

Draw 29.6% 34.5% 2.90 -8.5%

Away win 26.4% 40.8% 2.45 -21.2%

Over 2.5 41.8% 40.0% 2.50 +4.5%

Over 3.5 20.7% 19.2% 5.20 +4.6%

BTTS 47.2% 47.8% 2.09 -1.4%

Home O1.5 31.5% 30.5% 3.28 +3.3%

Away O1.5 23.5% 32.9% 3.04 -17.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 34%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.2 xG (away)0.8 BTTS prob47.2%

H 44% / xG 1.2-0.8 / U2.5 42% / NoBTTS 47%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 15.9%

#2 0–0 13.6%

#3 1–1✓ 13.1%

#4 0–1 11.3%

#5 2–0 9.3%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Petrovac1.2

Mornar0.8

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 41.8% · O3.5 PROB 20.7%

Form & verdict PPG

PETROVAC · PPG 1.60

MORNAR · PPG 1.72

⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected

65%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.34, combined xG 1.99 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Petrovac (H) 44.0%

ODDS 2.70 · IMPLIED 37.0% EV +18.8%

Draw 29.6%

ODDS 2.90 · IMPLIED 34.5% EV -8.5%

Mornar (A) 26.4%

ODDS 2.45 · IMPLIED 40.8% EV -21.2%

Match Preview & Prediction

Petrovac face Mornar in Montenegro - First League on Saturday, August 29, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Petrovac a 44% chance, the draw 30% and Mornar 26%, so Petrovac are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.2 for Petrovac and 0.8 for Mornar (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 42% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 47% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Petrovac are averaging 1.60 points per game versus 1.72 for Mornar. The best value bet our model finds is H/O25, with an expected value of +19.1%. This match finished 1-1.

Petrovac vs Mornar Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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