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Mornar Bar vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Regular Season - 35 ·Wednesday, May 20, 2026, 18:00

Mornar Bar

PPG 2.24 · HOME

1 – 1

FULL TIME

Petrovac

PPG 1.12 · AWAY

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-013.2%0-19.9%0-23.7%0-30.9%0-4+0.2%1 1-016.9%1-112.6%1-24.7%1-31.2%1-4+0.3%2 2-010.8%2-18.0%2-23.0%2-30.7%2-4+0.2%3 3-04.6%3-13.4%3-21.3%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-01.9%4+-11.4%4+-20.5%4+-30.1%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 47.7% — — —

Draw 28.3% — — —

Away win 24.0% — — —

Over 2.5 45.7% — — —

Over 3.5 14.7% — — —

BTTS 48.6% — — —

Home O1.5 — — — —

Away O1.5 — — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 34 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 41%

O2.5 56%

BTTS 50%

Score Hit 47%

ROI -42.3%

Bet Hit 33%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 31%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 1-1

xG (home)1.3 xG (away)0.7 BTTS prob48.6%

H 48% / xG 1.3-0.7 / U2.5 46% / NoBTTS 49%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0 13.2%

#2 1–0 16.9%

#3 1–1✓ 12.6%

#4 2–0 10.8%

#5 2–1 8.0%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Mornar Bar1.3

Petrovac0.7

COMBINED 2.0 xG → O2.5 PROB 45.7% · O3.5 PROB 14.7%

Form & verdict PPG

MORNAR BAR · PPG 2.24

PETROVAC · PPG 1.12

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ✓ SOLID - Strong home form | No clear value

55%

HIDDEN_VALUE_HOME

Home outperforming model: EXCELLENT form (2.24) vs P(Home)=47.7%

Win probability 1X2

Mornar Bar (H) 47.7%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Draw 28.3%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Petrovac (A) 24.0%

ODDS — · IMPLIED — EV —

Match Preview & Prediction

Mornar Bar face Petrovac in Montenegro - First League on Wednesday, May 20, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Mornar Bar a 48% chance, the draw 28% and Petrovac 24%, so Mornar Bar are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.3 for Mornar Bar and 0.7 for Petrovac (2.0 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 46% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 49% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Mornar Bar are averaging 2.24 points per game versus 1.12 for Petrovac. This match finished 1-1.

Mornar Bar vs Petrovac Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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