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Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 4 ·Sunday, August 23, 2026, 18:00

Bokelj

PPG 1.51 · HOME

LAST 5

WWLDD

0 – 0

FULL TIME

Arsenal Tivat

PPG 1.15 · AWAY

LAST 5

DDDDL

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-023.8%0-112.7%0-23.4%0-30.6%0-4+0.1%1 1-021.5%1-111.4%1-23.1%1-30.5%1-4+0.1%2 2-09.7%2-15.2%2-21.4%2-30.2%2-4+0.0%3 3-02.9%3-11.6%3-20.4%3-30.1%3-4+0.0%4+ 4+-00.8%4+-10.4%4+-20.1%4+-30.0%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 42.1% 44.4% 2.25 -5.3%

Draw 35.5% 36.4% 2.75 -2.4%

Away win 22.4% 32.3% 3.10 -18.3%

Over 2.5 33.3% 40.0% 2.50 -16.8%

Over 3.5 12.5% 18.9% 5.30 -20.3%

BTTS 43.0% 47.6% 2.10 -9.7%

Home O1.5 30.6% 36.2% 2.76 -15.5%

Away O1.5 16.4% 26.0% 3.85 -22.1%

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 36%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 0-0

xG (home)0.9 xG (away)0.5 BTTS prob43.0%

H 42% / xG 0.9-0.5 / U2.5 33% / NoBTTS 43%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 0–0✓ 23.8%

#2 1–0 21.5%

#3 0–1 12.7%

#4 1–1 11.4%

#5 2–0 9.7%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Bokelj0.9

Arsenal Tivat0.5

COMBINED 1.4 xG → O2.5 PROB 33.3% · O3.5 PROB 12.5%

Form & verdict PPG

BOKELJ · PPG 1.51

ARSENAL TIVAT · PPG 1.15

⚠ LOW CONFIDENCE - ⚖ HIGH DRAW RISK - evenly matched, low-scoring expected | No clear v...

45%

HIGH_DRAW_RISK

xG gap +0.37, combined xG 1.44 - evenly matched, low-scoring, elevated Draw risk

Win probability 1X2

Bokelj (H) 42.1%

ODDS 2.25 · IMPLIED 44.4% EV -5.3%

Draw 35.5%

ODDS 2.75 · IMPLIED 36.4% EV -2.4%

Arsenal Tivat (A) 22.4%

ODDS 3.10 · IMPLIED 32.3% EV -18.3%

Match Preview & Prediction

Bokelj face Arsenal Tivat in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, August 23, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Bokelj a 42% chance, the draw 36% and Arsenal Tivat 22%, so Bokelj are favoured to win. Expected goals are 0.9 for Bokelj and 0.5 for Arsenal Tivat (1.4 total). The most likely scoreline is 0-0. There is a 33% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 43% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Bokelj are averaging 1.51 points per game versus 1.15 for Arsenal Tivat. This match finished 0-0.

Bokelj vs Arsenal Tivat Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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