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Dečić vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Matchday 5 ·Sunday, August 30, 2026, 18:00

Dečić

PPG 1.75 · HOME

LAST 5

DWWWW

2 – 1

FULL TIME

✓ MODEL PICK HIT · HOME

Jezero

PPG 1.01 · AWAY

LAST 5

DWLDL

// Model verdict

Home

Model probability 58.7% vs bookmaker-implied 60.6%.

Poisson scoreline matrix HOME ↓ / AWAY →

01234+ 0 0-011.1%0-17.0%0-22.2%0-30.5%0-4+0.1%1 1-017.5%1-110.9%1-23.4%1-30.7%1-4+0.1%2 2-013.7%2-18.6%2-22.7%2-30.6%2-4+0.1%3 3-07.2%3-14.5%3-21.4%3-30.3%3-4+0.1%4+ 4+-04.0%4+-12.5%4+-20.8%4+-30.2%4+-4+0.0%

Cell shade = scoreline probability LOW HIGH · ▣ FT RESULT

Markets vs the line MODEL / ODDS / EV

MarketModelImpliedOddsEV

Home win 58.7% 60.6% 1.65 -3.1%

Draw 24.9% 30.8% 3.25 -11.5%

Away win 16.3% 20.0% 5.00 -11.1%

Over 2.5 43.9% 42.0% 2.38 +4.5%

Over 3.5 23.8% 20.8% 4.80 +8.5%

BTTS 43.7% 44.4% 2.25 -1.7%

Home O1.5 46.6% 48.8% 2.05 -4.5%

Away O1.5 16.8% — — —

League track record ↗

Based on 43 resolved predictions

1X2 Acc 42%

O2.5 58%

BTTS 51%

Score Hit 54%

ROI -55.0%

Bet Hit 23%

Correct score prediction CORRECT SCORE MODEL

2 – 0 45%CONFIDENCE

✘ MISS — FT 2-1

xG (home)1.6 xG (away)0.6 BTTS prob43.7%

H 59% / xG 1.6-0.6 / U2.5 44% / NoBTTS 44%

Top 5 Poisson scorelines

#1 1–0 17.5%

#2 2–0 13.7%

#3 0–0 11.1%

#4 1–1 10.9%

#5 2–1✓ 8.6%

Expected goals MODEL xG

Dečić1.6

Jezero0.6

COMBINED 2.2 xG → O2.5 PROB 43.9% · O3.5 PROB 23.8%

Form & verdict PPG

DEČIĆ · PPG 1.75

JEZERO · PPG 1.01

✓ FAIR - Moderate advantage | No clear value

75%

MODERATE_HOME

xG gap +0.94 - moderate Home edge

Win probability 1X2

Dečić (H) 58.7%

ODDS 1.65 · IMPLIED 60.6% EV -3.1%

Draw 24.9%

ODDS 3.25 · IMPLIED 30.8% EV -11.5%

Jezero (A) 16.3%

ODDS 5.00 · IMPLIED 20.0% EV -11.1%

Match Preview & Prediction

Dečić face Jezero in Montenegro - First League on Sunday, August 30, 2026. Our Poisson-based model has analysed both teams' form, attack and defence strength to generate the prediction below. The model gives Dečić a 59% chance, the draw 25% and Jezero 16%, so Dečić are favoured to win. Expected goals are 1.6 for Dečić and 0.6 for Jezero (2.2 total). The most likely scoreline is 1-0. There is a 44% chance of over 2.5 goals and a 44% chance of both teams scoring. On recent form, Dečić are averaging 1.75 points per game versus 1.01 for Jezero. The best value bet our model finds is over 3.5 goals, with an expected value of +8.5%. This match finished 2-1.

Dečić vs Jezero Prediction— Montenegro - First League

Match Preview & Prediction

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